Forecast models from sources like GFS consistently project an overnight low near 12°C in Warsaw on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds under high pressure around 1020 hPa, and radiative cooling typical for mid-September. This setup favors the 12°C outcome at 90% implied probability, with historical September minima often ranging 10–14°C under similar stable conditions. Recent observations show evening temperatures falling from 14–16°C toward 12–13°C by dawn, with minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, as any unexpected increase in humidity or wind could nudge readings slightly higher before official verification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月15日のワルシャワの最低気温は？
9月15日のワルシャワの最低気温は？
12℃ 100.0%
7℃以下 <1%
8℃ <1%
9°C <1%
$1,744 Vol.
$1,744 Vol.
2026/09/15
7℃以下
いいえ
8℃
いいえ
9°C
いいえ
10℃
いいえ
11℃
いいえ
12℃
はい
13℃
いいえ
14℃
いいえ
15°C
いいえ
16℃
いいえ
17°C以上
いいえ
12℃ 100.0%
7℃以下 <1%
8℃ <1%
9°C <1%
$1,744 Vol.
$1,744 Vol.
2026/09/15
7℃以下
$196 Vol.
いいえ
8℃
$10 Vol.
いいえ
9°C
$551 Vol.
いいえ
10℃
$205 Vol.
いいえ
11℃
$86 Vol.
いいえ
12℃
$160 Vol.
はい
13℃
$276 Vol.
いいえ
14℃
$170 Vol.
いいえ
15°C
$36 Vol.
いいえ
16℃
$32 Vol.
いいえ
17°C以上
$22 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS consistently project an overnight low near 12°C in Warsaw on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds under high pressure around 1020 hPa, and radiative cooling typical for mid-September. This setup favors the 12°C outcome at 90% implied probability, with historical September minima often ranging 10–14°C under similar stable conditions. Recent observations show evening temperatures falling from 14–16°C toward 12–13°C by dawn, with minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, as any unexpected increase in humidity or wind could nudge readings slightly higher before official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
音量
$1,744終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS consistently project an overnight low near 12°C in Warsaw on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds under high pressure around 1020 hPa, and radiative cooling typical for mid-September. This setup favors the 12°C outcome at 90% implied probability, with historical September minima often ranging 10–14°C under similar stable conditions. Recent observations show evening temperatures falling from 14–16°C toward 12–13°C by dawn, with minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, as any unexpected increase in humidity or wind could nudge readings slightly higher before official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,744終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Forecast models from sources like GFS consistently project an overnight low near 12°C in Warsaw on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds under high pressure around 1020 hPa, and radiative cooling typical for mid-September. This setup favors the 12°C outcome at 90% implied probability, with historical September minima often ranging 10–14°C under similar stable conditions. Recent observations show evening temperatures falling from 14–16°C toward 12–13°C by dawn, with minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, as any unexpected increase in humidity or wind could nudge readings slightly higher before official verification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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