Recent strong seismic activity offshore Japan, including a magnitude 7.7 earthquake around April 20, prompted the Japan Meteorological Agency to issue a temporary megaquake advisory, estimating a 1% chance of a magnitude 8.0 event in the Japan Trench due to induced stress changes—elevating trader-implied odds for a global M9.0+ megaquake by June 30 to 20% from lower baselines. However, USGS data shows no M9+ events in 2026 thus far, with the year's largest at M7.5 near Tonga in March; such megaquakes, requiring extended subduction zone ruptures, occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years, and operational forecasts cannot predict specific occurrences amid inherent seismic uncertainty. Traders' 80% consensus on "No" reflects this historical rarity and lack of broader precursors, with ongoing USGS monitoring key for any shifts ahead of quarterly aftershock forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6月30日までにメガクエイク？
6月30日までにメガクエイク？
はい
$56,964 Vol.
$56,964 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$56,964 Vol.
$56,964 Vol.
2026/06/30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent strong seismic activity offshore Japan, including a magnitude 7.7 earthquake around April 20, prompted the Japan Meteorological Agency to issue a temporary megaquake advisory, estimating a 1% chance of a magnitude 8.0 event in the Japan Trench due to induced stress changes—elevating trader-implied odds for a global M9.0+ megaquake by June 30 to 20% from lower baselines. However, USGS data shows no M9+ events in 2026 thus far, with the year's largest at M7.5 near Tonga in March; such megaquakes, requiring extended subduction zone ruptures, occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years, and operational forecasts cannot predict specific occurrences amid inherent seismic uncertainty. Traders' 80% consensus on "No" reflects this historical rarity and lack of broader precursors, with ongoing USGS monitoring key for any shifts ahead of quarterly aftershock forecasts.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
音量
$56,964終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent strong seismic activity offshore Japan, including a magnitude 7.7 earthquake around April 20, prompted the Japan Meteorological Agency to issue a temporary megaquake advisory, estimating a 1% chance of a magnitude 8.0 event in the Japan Trench due to induced stress changes—elevating trader-implied odds for a global M9.0+ megaquake by June 30 to 20% from lower baselines. However, USGS data shows no M9+ events in 2026 thus far, with the year's largest at M7.5 near Tonga in March; such megaquakes, requiring extended subduction zone ruptures, occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years, and operational forecasts cannot predict specific occurrences amid inherent seismic uncertainty. Traders' 80% consensus on "No" reflects this historical rarity and lack of broader precursors, with ongoing USGS monitoring key for any shifts ahead of quarterly aftershock forecasts.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$56,964終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strong seismic activity offshore Japan, including a magnitude 7.7 earthquake around April 20, prompted the Japan Meteorological Agency to issue a temporary megaquake advisory, estimating a 1% chance of a magnitude 8.0 event in the Japan Trench due to induced stress changes—elevating trader-implied odds for a global M9.0+ megaquake by June 30 to 20% from lower baselines. However, USGS data shows no M9+ events in 2026 thus far, with the year's largest at M7.5 near Tonga in March; such megaquakes, requiring extended subduction zone ruptures, occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years, and operational forecasts cannot predict specific occurrences amid inherent seismic uncertainty. Traders' 80% consensus on "No" reflects this historical rarity and lack of broader precursors, with ongoing USGS monitoring key for any shifts ahead of quarterly aftershock forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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