Trader consensus pricing "No" at 80.5% reflects the rarity of magnitude 8.0+ megaquakes—occurring roughly once per year globally per USGS historical data—with none recorded since the M8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula event in July 2025, implying just a 19.5% chance through June 30 amid stable seismic patterns. Recent M7.4 activity near Japan has prompted a minor uptick in Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from 0.1% per Japanese agencies, but USGS monitoring shows no precursory swarms or strain anomalies in high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Chile, or Sumatra. Ongoing real-time USGS feeds and aftershock forecasts provide key updates, underscoring inherent unpredictability in short-term seismic hazards.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6月30日までにメガクエイク？
6月30日までにメガクエイク？
はい
$56,910 Vol.
$56,910 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$56,910 Vol.
$56,910 Vol.
2026/06/30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus pricing "No" at 80.5% reflects the rarity of magnitude 8.0+ megaquakes—occurring roughly once per year globally per USGS historical data—with none recorded since the M8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula event in July 2025, implying just a 19.5% chance through June 30 amid stable seismic patterns. Recent M7.4 activity near Japan has prompted a minor uptick in Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from 0.1% per Japanese agencies, but USGS monitoring shows no precursory swarms or strain anomalies in high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Chile, or Sumatra. Ongoing real-time USGS feeds and aftershock forecasts provide key updates, underscoring inherent unpredictability in short-term seismic hazards.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
音量
$56,910終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus pricing "No" at 80.5% reflects the rarity of magnitude 8.0+ megaquakes—occurring roughly once per year globally per USGS historical data—with none recorded since the M8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula event in July 2025, implying just a 19.5% chance through June 30 amid stable seismic patterns. Recent M7.4 activity near Japan has prompted a minor uptick in Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from 0.1% per Japanese agencies, but USGS monitoring shows no precursory swarms or strain anomalies in high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Chile, or Sumatra. Ongoing real-time USGS feeds and aftershock forecasts provide key updates, underscoring inherent unpredictability in short-term seismic hazards.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$56,910終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus pricing "No" at 80.5% reflects the rarity of magnitude 8.0+ megaquakes—occurring roughly once per year globally per USGS historical data—with none recorded since the M8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula event in July 2025, implying just a 19.5% chance through June 30 amid stable seismic patterns. Recent M7.4 activity near Japan has prompted a minor uptick in Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from 0.1% per Japanese agencies, but USGS monitoring shows no precursory swarms or strain anomalies in high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Chile, or Sumatra. Ongoing real-time USGS feeds and aftershock forecasts provide key updates, underscoring inherent unpredictability in short-term seismic hazards.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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