Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月9日まで 44%
9月10日 44%
9月11日 44%
9月20日 44%
新規
新規
2026/09/09
2026年9月9日まで
44%
9月10日
44%
9月11日
44%
9月12日
28%
9月13日
21%
9月14日
44%
9月15日
28%
9月16日
28%
9月17日
28%
9月18日
28%
9月19日
38%
9月20日
44%
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44%
9月22日
44%
9月23日
44%
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44%
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26%
9月26日
44%
9月27日
24%
9月28日
44%
9月29日
43%
9月30日
44%
9月30日までにリリースなし
44%
2026年9月9日まで 44%
9月10日 44%
9月11日 44%
9月20日 44%
新規
新規
2026/09/09
2026年9月9日まで
$0 Vol.
44%
9月10日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月11日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月12日
$0 Vol.
28%
9月13日
$0 Vol.
21%
9月14日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月15日
$0 Vol.
28%
9月16日
$0 Vol.
28%
9月17日
$0 Vol.
28%
9月18日
$0 Vol.
28%
9月19日
$0 Vol.
38%
9月20日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月21日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月22日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月23日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月24日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月25日
$0 Vol.
26%
9月26日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月27日
$0 Vol.
24%
9月28日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月29日
$0 Vol.
43%
9月30日
$0 Vol.
44%
9月30日までにリリースなし
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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