On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic's roughly three-month release cadence since the June 9 launch of public Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 variants drives current market sentiment toward an early September rollout for the next Mythos-class model. These systems represent the lab's frontier tier above Opus, with standout agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and autonomous cybersecurity capabilities demonstrated in prior previews and benchmarks like SWE-bench. Traders factor in recent U.S. government access expansions in late June, ongoing safety evaluations for offensive capabilities, and competitive pressure from peers such as OpenAI's GPT-5.6 updates. Key near-term catalysts include potential benchmark releases or official announcements that could confirm timing or introduce safeguards affecting general availability.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Anthropic's roughly three-month release cadence since the June 9 launch of public Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 variants drives current market sentiment toward an early September rollout for the next Mythos-class model. These systems represent the lab's frontier tier above Opus, with standout agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and autonomous cybersecurity capabilities demonstrated in prior previews and benchmarks like SWE-bench. Traders factor in recent U.S. government access expansions in late June, ongoing safety evaluations for offensive capabilities, and competitive pressure from peers such as OpenAI's GPT-5.6 updates. Key near-term catalysts include potential benchmark releases or official announcements that could confirm timing or introduce safeguards affecting general availability.
Anthropic opens 10,000 free and discounted Claude seats to scientists with government-mediated life sciences access
September 30 rises to 93%1%
On August 27, 2026, Anthropic announced a program granting free and discounted access to Claude for scientists worldwide, with life sciences research access to Mythos-class models now mediated by the U.S. government, reflecting ongoing regulatory oversight.
Aug 26 2026
Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 gains widespread adoption in developer and production environments
September 15 surges to 77%20%
By late August 2026, Claude Fable 5 was broadly available across multiple channels including GitHub Copilot and API subscriptions, making Mythos-class performance accessible to a wide developer base, which supported rising market prices for public release outcomes.
Aug 24 2026
Market speculation and reporting intensify on broader Mythos-class model public release
October 31 jumps to 86%10%
In late August 2026, market prices surged as speculation and credible reporting increased about Anthropic's broader public release plans for Mythos-class models, reflecting growing confidence that the models would be accessible beyond limited partners.
Aug 21 2026
Anthropic integrates Claude Mythos 5 into Claude Security for vulnerability scanning
September 30 jumps to 93%5%
On August 21, 2026, Anthropic launched Claude Security scans powered by Mythos 5 in public beta for enterprise customers, enabling vulnerability detection and patch suggestions without direct model access, expanding practical use of Mythos-class capabilities.
Jul 1 2026
Anthropic restores global commercial availability of Claude Fable 5 after lifting of government restrictions
September 30 jumps to 75%8%
Following the lifting of the US Commerce order on June 30, Anthropic resumed global commercial availability of Claude Fable 5 on July 1, 2026. This reinstatement of public access to a Mythos-class model reinforced market confidence in its availability to commercial customers.
Jul 1 2026
Claude Fable 5 returns to global commercial availability after US export restrictions lifted
After the US Commerce Department lifted restrictions on June 30, Anthropic restored global commercial access to Claude Fable 5 on July 1, confirming the model's public availability and supporting market confidence in the Mythos-class model's accessibility.
Jul 1 2026
Anthropic restores global access to Claude Fable 5 following lifting of export controls
October 31 surges to 96%20%
After the U.S. Department of Commerce rescinded emergency export controls, Anthropic restored global access to Claude Fable 5 on July 1, 2026, making its most powerful AI model available again to enterprises and developers worldwide.
Jun 30 2026
U.S. Commerce Department lifts export restrictions on Claude Fable 5, enabling access restoration
September 30 jumps to 70%5%
The U.S. Commerce Department lifted the export control restrictions on June 30, 2026, allowing Anthropic to restore worldwide access to Claude Fable 5 starting July 1. This resolution of the suspension led to renewed market confidence and price recovery.
Jun 26 2026
U.S. government partially lifts export controls, clears Mythos 5 for limited release to vetted organizations
September 4 surges to 76%26%
On June 26, 2026, the U.S. government partially lifted the export control block, allowing Anthropic to redeploy Claude Mythos 5 to over 100 vetted U.S. institutions, including major companies and government agencies, while Fable 5 remained under review for broader public access.
Jun 26 2026
U.S. government grants Anthropic permission to release Mythos 5 to select companies and agencies
September 30 jumps to 76%12%
On June 26, 2026, the U.S. government allowed Anthropic to provide Mythos 5 access to over 100 trusted U.S. companies and federal agencies, signaling a softening of restrictions and progress in negotiations, positively impacting market sentiment.
Jun 26 2026
US government partially lifts export-control block on Anthropic's Mythos 5 for vetted institutions
September 30 rises to 67%1%
On June 26, 2026, the US government partially lifted an export-control block imposed earlier in June, allowing Anthropic to provide its most powerful cybersecurity model, Claude Mythos 5, to over 100 vetted US institutions. This regulatory development maintained limited access but restricted general public availability, impacting market perceptions.
Jun 26 2026
US government partially lifts export-control block on Anthropic's Mythos 5 model
Following a US export-control directive that temporarily disabled Mythos 5 and Fable 5 on June 12, the US government partially lifted the block on June 26, allowing over 100 vetted US institutions to access Mythos 5. This regulatory development reassured the market about continued limited access to Mythos-class models.
Jun 12 2026
U.S. government issues export control directive forcing Anthropic to suspend access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5
September 30 drops to 56%12%
On June 12, the U.S. government ordered Anthropic to suspend access to both Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 due to national security concerns over a potential jailbreak. Anthropic complied by disabling access for all customers, causing a sharp market sell-off and pushing back expectations for a full public release of the unrestricted Mythos model.
Jun 12 2026
U.S. government orders Anthropic to suspend access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 over export control directive
September 30 drops to 56%12%
On June 12, the U.S. government issued a directive citing national security concerns and a narrow potential jailbreak, forcing Anthropic to suspend access to both Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all users, including foreign nationals. This abrupt suspension caused a sharp market sell-off and pushed expectations for a full public release further out.
Jun 11 2026
Anthropic confirms Claude Fable 5 as state-of-the-art Mythos-class model for public use
Anthropic officially launched Claude Fable 5 as a Mythos-class model made safe and available to the general public, highlighting its superior capabilities and positioning it as the most powerful model Anthropic has made publicly accessible, reinforcing the bifurcated release strategy.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic's roughly three-month release cadence since the June 9 launch of public Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 variants drives current market sentiment toward an early September rollout for the next Mythos-class model. These systems represent the lab's frontier tier above Opus, with standout agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and autonomous cybersecurity capabilities demonstrated in prior previews and benchmarks like SWE-bench. Traders factor in recent U.S. government access expansions in late June, ongoing safety evaluations for offensive capabilities, and competitive pressure from peers such as OpenAI's GPT-5.6 updates. Key near-term catalysts include potential benchmark releases or official announcements that could confirm timing or introduce safeguards affecting general availability.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Anthropic's roughly three-month release cadence since the June 9 launch of public Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 variants drives current market sentiment toward an early September rollout for the next Mythos-class model. These systems represent the lab's frontier tier above Opus, with standout agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and autonomous cybersecurity capabilities demonstrated in prior previews and benchmarks like SWE-bench. Traders factor in recent U.S. government access expansions in late June, ongoing safety evaluations for offensive capabilities, and competitive pressure from peers such as OpenAI's GPT-5.6 updates. Key near-term catalysts include potential benchmark releases or official announcements that could confirm timing or introduce safeguards affecting general availability.
Anthropic opens 10,000 free and discounted Claude seats to scientists with government-mediated life sciences access
September 30 rises to 93%1%
On August 27, 2026, Anthropic announced a program granting free and discounted access to Claude for scientists worldwide, with life sciences research access to Mythos-class models now mediated by the U.S. government, reflecting ongoing regulatory oversight.
Aug 26 2026
Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 gains widespread adoption in developer and production environments
September 15 surges to 77%20%
By late August 2026, Claude Fable 5 was broadly available across multiple channels including GitHub Copilot and API subscriptions, making Mythos-class performance accessible to a wide developer base, which supported rising market prices for public release outcomes.
Aug 24 2026
Market speculation and reporting intensify on broader Mythos-class model public release
October 31 jumps to 86%10%
In late August 2026, market prices surged as speculation and credible reporting increased about Anthropic's broader public release plans for Mythos-class models, reflecting growing confidence that the models would be accessible beyond limited partners.
Aug 21 2026
Anthropic integrates Claude Mythos 5 into Claude Security for vulnerability scanning
September 30 jumps to 93%5%
On August 21, 2026, Anthropic launched Claude Security scans powered by Mythos 5 in public beta for enterprise customers, enabling vulnerability detection and patch suggestions without direct model access, expanding practical use of Mythos-class capabilities.
Jul 1 2026
Anthropic restores global commercial availability of Claude Fable 5 after lifting of government restrictions
September 30 jumps to 75%8%
Following the lifting of the US Commerce order on June 30, Anthropic resumed global commercial availability of Claude Fable 5 on July 1, 2026. This reinstatement of public access to a Mythos-class model reinforced market confidence in its availability to commercial customers.
Jul 1 2026
Claude Fable 5 returns to global commercial availability after US export restrictions lifted
After the US Commerce Department lifted restrictions on June 30, Anthropic restored global commercial access to Claude Fable 5 on July 1, confirming the model's public availability and supporting market confidence in the Mythos-class model's accessibility.
Jul 1 2026
Anthropic restores global access to Claude Fable 5 following lifting of export controls
October 31 surges to 96%20%
After the U.S. Department of Commerce rescinded emergency export controls, Anthropic restored global access to Claude Fable 5 on July 1, 2026, making its most powerful AI model available again to enterprises and developers worldwide.
Jun 30 2026
U.S. Commerce Department lifts export restrictions on Claude Fable 5, enabling access restoration
September 30 jumps to 70%5%
The U.S. Commerce Department lifted the export control restrictions on June 30, 2026, allowing Anthropic to restore worldwide access to Claude Fable 5 starting July 1. This resolution of the suspension led to renewed market confidence and price recovery.
Jun 26 2026
U.S. government partially lifts export controls, clears Mythos 5 for limited release to vetted organizations
September 4 surges to 76%26%
On June 26, 2026, the U.S. government partially lifted the export control block, allowing Anthropic to redeploy Claude Mythos 5 to over 100 vetted U.S. institutions, including major companies and government agencies, while Fable 5 remained under review for broader public access.
Jun 26 2026
U.S. government grants Anthropic permission to release Mythos 5 to select companies and agencies
September 30 jumps to 76%12%
On June 26, 2026, the U.S. government allowed Anthropic to provide Mythos 5 access to over 100 trusted U.S. companies and federal agencies, signaling a softening of restrictions and progress in negotiations, positively impacting market sentiment.
Jun 26 2026
US government partially lifts export-control block on Anthropic's Mythos 5 for vetted institutions
September 30 rises to 67%1%
On June 26, 2026, the US government partially lifted an export-control block imposed earlier in June, allowing Anthropic to provide its most powerful cybersecurity model, Claude Mythos 5, to over 100 vetted US institutions. This regulatory development maintained limited access but restricted general public availability, impacting market perceptions.
Jun 26 2026
US government partially lifts export-control block on Anthropic's Mythos 5 model
Following a US export-control directive that temporarily disabled Mythos 5 and Fable 5 on June 12, the US government partially lifted the block on June 26, allowing over 100 vetted US institutions to access Mythos 5. This regulatory development reassured the market about continued limited access to Mythos-class models.
Jun 12 2026
U.S. government issues export control directive forcing Anthropic to suspend access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5
September 30 drops to 56%12%
On June 12, the U.S. government ordered Anthropic to suspend access to both Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 due to national security concerns over a potential jailbreak. Anthropic complied by disabling access for all customers, causing a sharp market sell-off and pushing back expectations for a full public release of the unrestricted Mythos model.
Jun 12 2026
U.S. government orders Anthropic to suspend access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 over export control directive
September 30 drops to 56%12%
On June 12, the U.S. government issued a directive citing national security concerns and a narrow potential jailbreak, forcing Anthropic to suspend access to both Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all users, including foreign nationals. This abrupt suspension caused a sharp market sell-off and pushed expectations for a full public release further out.
Jun 11 2026
Anthropic confirms Claude Fable 5 as state-of-the-art Mythos-class model for public use
Anthropic officially launched Claude Fable 5 as a Mythos-class model made safe and available to the general public, highlighting its superior capabilities and positioning it as the most powerful model Anthropic has made publicly accessible, reinforcing the bifurcated release strategy.
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