Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.-Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, have produced no announced ceasefires, high-level leader summits, or breakthroughs during September. UN General Assembly sessions and related bilateral meetings yielded diplomatic statements but no qualifying resolutions on those fronts. Federal Reserve policy has remained unchanged, with no large rate cuts or leadership shifts reported. Midterm election dynamics and other domestic developments have not triggered the market's specific criteria either. Traders' consensus on a high probability for "Nothing" reflects the absence of these catalysts so far, though late-month events could still alter outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日何もない
78% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
何もない
78% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdfOngoing geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.-Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, have produced no announced ceasefires, high-level leader summits, or breakthroughs during September. UN General Assembly sessions and related bilateral meetings yielded diplomatic statements but no qualifying resolutions on those fronts. Federal Reserve policy has remained unchanged, with no large rate cuts or leadership shifts reported. Midterm election dynamics and other domestic developments have not triggered the market's specific criteria either. Traders' consensus on a high probability for "Nothing" reflects the absence of these catalysts so far, though late-month events could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdf
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdf
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 7:34 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdfOngoing geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.-Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, have produced no announced ceasefires, high-level leader summits, or breakthroughs during September. UN General Assembly sessions and related bilateral meetings yielded diplomatic statements but no qualifying resolutions on those fronts. Federal Reserve policy has remained unchanged, with no large rate cuts or leadership shifts reported. Midterm election dynamics and other domestic developments have not triggered the market's specific criteria either. Traders' consensus on a high probability for "Nothing" reflects the absence of these catalysts so far, though late-month events could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdf
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Fed rate cut
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_September.pdf
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2026, 7:34 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.-Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, have produced no announced ceasefires, high-level leader summits, or breakthroughs during September. UN General Assembly sessions and related bilateral meetings yielded diplomatic statements but no qualifying resolutions on those fronts. Federal Reserve policy has remained unchanged, with no large rate cuts or leadership shifts reported. Midterm election dynamics and other domestic developments have not triggered the market's specific criteria either. Traders' consensus on a high probability for "Nothing" reflects the absence of these catalysts so far, though late-month events could still alter outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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