Polymarket's tightly matched implied probabilities of 44.5% across bins from below $429k to above $441k signal trader consensus on high uncertainty for the US median home value on April 30, driven by stagnant price momentum amid rising inventory and tepid spring demand. Redfin's February median sale price stabilized at $429,189, up only 0.9% year-over-year, while NAR's existing-home median dipped to a flat $398,000 with 3.8 months' supply capping upward pressure; Zillow's ZHVI All Homes ticked to $361,371, +0.1% month-over-month. Key swing factors include March home sales data (due mid-April), mortgage rate sensitivity around 6.5-7%, and regional inventory imbalances, with forecasts like Redfin's projecting just 1% annual growth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日<429k 45%
429 - 431k 45%
431 - 433k 45%
433 - 435k 45%
新規
新規
2026/04/30
<429k
45%
429 - 431k
45%
431 - 433k
45%
433 - 435k
45%
435 - 437k
45%
437 - 439k
45%
439 - 441k
45%
>441k
45%
<429k 45%
429 - 431k 45%
431 - 433k 45%
433 - 435k 45%
新規
新規
2026/04/30
<429k
$0 Vol.
45%
429 - 431k
$0 Vol.
45%
431 - 433k
$0 Vol.
45%
433 - 435k
$0 Vol.
45%
435 - 437k
$0 Vol.
45%
437 - 439k
$0 Vol.
45%
439 - 441k
$0 Vol.
45%
>441k
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
Polymarket's tightly matched implied probabilities of 44.5% across bins from below $429k to above $441k signal trader consensus on high uncertainty for the US median home value on April 30, driven by stagnant price momentum amid rising inventory and tepid spring demand. Redfin's February median sale price stabilized at $429,189, up only 0.9% year-over-year, while NAR's existing-home median dipped to a flat $398,000 with 3.8 months' supply capping upward pressure; Zillow's ZHVI All Homes ticked to $361,371, +0.1% month-over-month. Key swing factors include March home sales data (due mid-April), mortgage rate sensitivity around 6.5-7%, and regional inventory imbalances, with forecasts like Redfin's projecting just 1% annual growth.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
マーケット開始日： Mar 30, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
Polymarket's tightly matched implied probabilities of 44.5% across bins from below $429k to above $441k signal trader consensus on high uncertainty for the US median home value on April 30, driven by stagnant price momentum amid rising inventory and tepid spring demand. Redfin's February median sale price stabilized at $429,189, up only 0.9% year-over-year, while NAR's existing-home median dipped to a flat $398,000 with 3.8 months' supply capping upward pressure; Zillow's ZHVI All Homes ticked to $361,371, +0.1% month-over-month. Key swing factors include March home sales data (due mid-April), mortgage rate sensitivity around 6.5-7%, and regional inventory imbalances, with forecasts like Redfin's projecting just 1% annual growth.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/24)
音量
$0終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's tightly matched implied probabilities of 44.5% across bins from below $429k to above $441k signal trader consensus on high uncertainty for the US median home value on April 30, driven by stagnant price momentum amid rising inventory and tepid spring demand. Redfin's February median sale price stabilized at $429,189, up only 0.9% year-over-year, while NAR's existing-home median dipped to a flat $398,000 with 3.8 months' supply capping upward pressure; Zillow's ZHVI All Homes ticked to $361,371, +0.1% month-over-month. Key swing factors include March home sales data (due mid-April), mortgage rate sensitivity around 6.5-7%, and regional inventory imbalances, with forecasts like Redfin's projecting just 1% annual growth.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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