Tesla began limited Optimus production at its Fremont factory in late August 2026 after converting former Model S and X lines, with initial Gen 3 units directed to internal training rather than external sales. Recent Gen 2 unveilings highlighted gains in dexterity, battery endurance, and actuator efficiency, supporting Musk’s sub-$20,000 cost target, yet output remains deliberately slow due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and new manufacturing process. Chinese rivals such as Unitree already ship commercial humanoids at lower prices, intensifying competitive pressure. Key near-term catalysts include production ramp metrics, Giga Texas factory progress, and any confirmed external deployments that could shift trader views on 2026 commercial availability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$120,596 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
4%
$120,596 Vol.
12月31日
$24,101 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla began limited Optimus production at its Fremont factory in late August 2026 after converting former Model S and X lines, with initial Gen 3 units directed to internal training rather than external sales. Recent Gen 2 unveilings highlighted gains in dexterity, battery endurance, and actuator efficiency, supporting Musk’s sub-$20,000 cost target, yet output remains deliberately slow due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and new manufacturing process. Chinese rivals such as Unitree already ship commercial humanoids at lower prices, intensifying competitive pressure. Key near-term catalysts include production ramp metrics, Giga Texas factory progress, and any confirmed external deployments that could shift trader views on 2026 commercial availability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
マーケット開始日： Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
音量
$120,596終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ET結算ソース
..リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla began limited Optimus production at its Fremont factory in late August 2026 after converting former Model S and X lines, with initial Gen 3 units directed to internal training rather than external sales. Recent Gen 2 unveilings highlighted gains in dexterity, battery endurance, and actuator efficiency, supporting Musk’s sub-$20,000 cost target, yet output remains deliberately slow due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and new manufacturing process. Chinese rivals such as Unitree already ship commercial humanoids at lower prices, intensifying competitive pressure. Key near-term catalysts include production ramp metrics, Giga Texas factory progress, and any confirmed external deployments that could shift trader views on 2026 commercial availability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
音量
$120,596終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ET結算ソース
..リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Tesla began limited Optimus production at its Fremont factory in late August 2026 after converting former Model S and X lines, with initial Gen 3 units directed to internal training rather than external sales. Recent Gen 2 unveilings highlighted gains in dexterity, battery endurance, and actuator efficiency, supporting Musk’s sub-$20,000 cost target, yet output remains deliberately slow due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and new manufacturing process. Chinese rivals such as Unitree already ship commercial humanoids at lower prices, intensifying competitive pressure. Key near-term catalysts include production ramp metrics, Giga Texas factory progress, and any confirmed external deployments that could shift trader views on 2026 commercial availability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問