Tesla’s decision to prioritize fleet deployment over retail sales, combined with revised production guidance and active NHTSA scrutiny, underpins the 84% market-implied probability that no Cybercab will reach private buyers at $30,000 or less in 2026. Production of the steering-wheel-free vehicle began at Giga Texas in February and entered continuous runs in April, yet Tesla’s July earnings update eliminated expectations for volume output this year. Public paid rides launched in Austin in September remain limited to Tesla-owned units, with no consumer configurator, order book, or published MSRP. Federal regulators have demanded sworn proof of compliance with safety standards written for human-driven cars, with a September 30 response deadline. These factors, alongside typical new-platform ramp delays, have solidified trader consensus that meaningful individual sales will slip into 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
16% 確率
$57,163 Vol.
$57,163 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
16% 確率
$57,163 Vol.
$57,163 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s decision to prioritize fleet deployment over retail sales, combined with revised production guidance and active NHTSA scrutiny, underpins the 84% market-implied probability that no Cybercab will reach private buyers at $30,000 or less in 2026. Production of the steering-wheel-free vehicle began at Giga Texas in February and entered continuous runs in April, yet Tesla’s July earnings update eliminated expectations for volume output this year. Public paid rides launched in Austin in September remain limited to Tesla-owned units, with no consumer configurator, order book, or published MSRP. Federal regulators have demanded sworn proof of compliance with safety standards written for human-driven cars, with a September 30 response deadline. These factors, alongside typical new-platform ramp delays, have solidified trader consensus that meaningful individual sales will slip into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
音量
$57,163終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s decision to prioritize fleet deployment over retail sales, combined with revised production guidance and active NHTSA scrutiny, underpins the 84% market-implied probability that no Cybercab will reach private buyers at $30,000 or less in 2026. Production of the steering-wheel-free vehicle began at Giga Texas in February and entered continuous runs in April, yet Tesla’s July earnings update eliminated expectations for volume output this year. Public paid rides launched in Austin in September remain limited to Tesla-owned units, with no consumer configurator, order book, or published MSRP. Federal regulators have demanded sworn proof of compliance with safety standards written for human-driven cars, with a September 30 response deadline. These factors, alongside typical new-platform ramp delays, have solidified trader consensus that meaningful individual sales will slip into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...Tesla’s decision to prioritize fleet deployment over retail sales, combined with revised production guidance and active NHTSA scrutiny, underpins the 84% market-implied probability that no Cybercab will reach private buyers at $30,000 or less in 2026. Production of the steering-wheel-free vehicle began at Giga Texas in February and entered continuous runs in April, yet Tesla’s July earnings update eliminated expectations for volume output this year. Public paid rides launched in Austin in September remain limited to Tesla-owned units, with no consumer configurator, order book, or published MSRP. Federal regulators have demanded sworn proof of compliance with safety standards written for human-driven cars, with a September 30 response deadline. These factors, alongside typical new-platform ramp delays, have solidified trader consensus that meaningful individual sales will slip into 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問