Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's commanding position in California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic general election win on November 3, 2026. DeSaulnier's $656,000 cash-on-hand dwarfs challengers after the March 31 fundraising reports, following the March 6 filing deadline that locked in weak Republican fields including repeat 2024 loser Katherine Piccinini. His 66.5% 2024 victory and consistent double-digit margins underscore structural dominance, with ratings like Cook's "Solid Democratic" reflecting no competitive polling or recruitment. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but upset risks remain low. Realistic challenges include a flawed Democratic nominee emerging from the primary, a personal scandal, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave—though historical base rates and district math make these improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$5,494 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$3,313 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's commanding position in California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic general election win on November 3, 2026. DeSaulnier's $656,000 cash-on-hand dwarfs challengers after the March 31 fundraising reports, following the March 6 filing deadline that locked in weak Republican fields including repeat 2024 loser Katherine Piccinini. His 66.5% 2024 victory and consistent double-digit margins underscore structural dominance, with ratings like Cook's "Solid Democratic" reflecting no competitive polling or recruitment. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but upset risks remain low. Realistic challenges include a flawed Democratic nominee emerging from the primary, a personal scandal, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave—though historical base rates and district math make these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$8,807종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's commanding position in California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic general election win on November 3, 2026. DeSaulnier's $656,000 cash-on-hand dwarfs challengers after the March 31 fundraising reports, following the March 6 filing deadline that locked in weak Republican fields including repeat 2024 loser Katherine Piccinini. His 66.5% 2024 victory and consistent double-digit margins underscore structural dominance, with ratings like Cook's "Solid Democratic" reflecting no competitive polling or recruitment. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but upset risks remain low. Realistic challenges include a flawed Democratic nominee emerging from the primary, a personal scandal, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave—though historical base rates and district math make these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$8,807종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier's commanding position in California's 10th Congressional District, a deep-blue East Bay seat with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic general election win on November 3, 2026. DeSaulnier's $656,000 cash-on-hand dwarfs challengers after the March 31 fundraising reports, following the March 6 filing deadline that locked in weak Republican fields including repeat 2024 loser Katherine Piccinini. His 66.5% 2024 victory and consistent double-digit margins underscore structural dominance, with ratings like Cook's "Solid Democratic" reflecting no competitive polling or recruitment. The June 2 top-two primary looms, but upset risks remain low. Realistic challenges include a flawed Democratic nominee emerging from the primary, a personal scandal, or an overwhelming national Republican midterm wave—though historical base rates and district math make these improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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