Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have diminished near-term cut expectations. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added a stronger-than-expected 178,000 jobs, edging the unemployment rate to 4.3%; FOMC minutes from the March 17-18 session, released April 8, highlighted openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks from oil shocks. The federal funds target remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3% signaling caution. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for further guidance amid these dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 80%
25bp 인하 12%
25bp 인상 3.5%
50bp 이상 인하 2.8%
$3,634,017 거래량
$3,634,017 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
3%
25bp 인하
12%
변경 없음
80%
25bp 인상
4%
50bp 이상 인상
1%
변경 없음 80%
25bp 인하 12%
25bp 인상 3.5%
50bp 이상 인하 2.8%
$3,634,017 거래량
$3,634,017 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
$160,554 거래량
3%
25bp 인하
$110,560 거래량
12%
변경 없음
$162,987 거래량
80%
25bp 인상
$3,013,763 거래량
4%
50bp 이상 인상
$187,039 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have diminished near-term cut expectations. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added a stronger-than-expected 178,000 jobs, edging the unemployment rate to 4.3%; FOMC minutes from the March 17-18 session, released April 8, highlighted openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks from oil shocks. The federal funds target remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3% signaling caution. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for further guidance amid these dynamics.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
거래량
$3,634,017종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have diminished near-term cut expectations. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added a stronger-than-expected 178,000 jobs, edging the unemployment rate to 4.3%; FOMC minutes from the March 17-18 session, released April 8, highlighted openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks from oil shocks. The federal funds target remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3% signaling caution. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for further guidance amid these dynamics.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$3,634,017종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have diminished near-term cut expectations. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added a stronger-than-expected 178,000 jobs, edging the unemployment rate to 4.3%; FOMC minutes from the March 17-18 session, released April 8, highlighted openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks from oil shocks. The federal funds target remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3% signaling caution. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for further guidance amid these dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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