**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.** May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—with monthly gains of 0.5% fueled by energy prices surging 23.5% amid geopolitical tensions, while core inflation reached 2.9%. A strong May jobs report reinforced this outlook, prompting economists to shift toward holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end. The June 16-17 meeting is expected to drop any easing bias, aligning with trader consensus reflected in fed funds futures. A material weakening in employment data or sharper-than-expected cooling in headline and core readings could still prompt reconsideration ahead of the July decision.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 95%
50bp 이상 인하 2.3%
25bp 인하 2.1%
25bp 인상 1.8%
$10,018,029 거래량
$10,018,029 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
2%
25bp 인하
2%
변경 없음
95%
25bp 인상
2%
50bp 이상 인상
<1%
변경 없음 95%
50bp 이상 인하 2.3%
25bp 인하 2.1%
25bp 인상 1.8%
$10,018,029 거래량
$10,018,029 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
$1,504,103 거래량
2%
25bp 인하
$1,107,229 거래량
2%
변경 없음
$1,697,485 거래량
95%
25bp 인상
$4,147,549 거래량
2%
50bp 이상 인상
$1,582,963 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.** May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—with monthly gains of 0.5% fueled by energy prices surging 23.5% amid geopolitical tensions, while core inflation reached 2.9%. A strong May jobs report reinforced this outlook, prompting economists to shift toward holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end. The June 16-17 meeting is expected to drop any easing bias, aligning with trader consensus reflected in fed funds futures. A material weakening in employment data or sharper-than-expected cooling in headline and core readings could still prompt reconsideration ahead of the July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
거래량
$10,018,029종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.** May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—with monthly gains of 0.5% fueled by energy prices surging 23.5% amid geopolitical tensions, while core inflation reached 2.9%. A strong May jobs report reinforced this outlook, prompting economists to shift toward holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end. The June 16-17 meeting is expected to drop any easing bias, aligning with trader consensus reflected in fed funds futures. A material weakening in employment data or sharper-than-expected cooling in headline and core readings could still prompt reconsideration ahead of the July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$10,018,029종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.** May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—with monthly gains of 0.5% fueled by energy prices surging 23.5% amid geopolitical tensions, while core inflation reached 2.9%. A strong May jobs report reinforced this outlook, prompting economists to shift toward holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end. The June 16-17 meeting is expected to drop any easing bias, aligning with trader consensus reflected in fed funds futures. A material weakening in employment data or sharper-than-expected cooling in headline and core readings could still prompt reconsideration ahead of the July decision.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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