Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April's 3.8% year-over-year CPI print—the highest since May 2023 and fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices—anchor the 93.5% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent data show headline and core measures both exceeding forecasts, prompting traders to assign just 4.9% odds to a 25 basis point hike and under 2% to any cut, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent stance and projections for limited easing later in 2026. Solid labor market conditions and anchored long-term expectations further support holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. June CPI data due June 10 and any shifts in incoming employment or inflation readings represent the main swing factors that could alter this market-implied path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 94%
25bp 인상 4.9%
25bp 인하 1.6%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$8,287,393 거래량
$8,287,393 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
1%
25bp 인하
2%
변경 없음
94%
25bp 인상
5%
50bp 이상 인상
<1%
변경 없음 94%
25bp 인상 4.9%
25bp 인하 1.6%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$8,287,393 거래량
$8,287,393 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
$1,067,608 거래량
1%
25bp 인하
$857,340 거래량
2%
변경 없음
$1,101,439 거래량
94%
25bp 인상
$3,884,203 거래량
5%
50bp 이상 인상
$1,376,840 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April's 3.8% year-over-year CPI print—the highest since May 2023 and fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices—anchor the 93.5% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent data show headline and core measures both exceeding forecasts, prompting traders to assign just 4.9% odds to a 25 basis point hike and under 2% to any cut, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent stance and projections for limited easing later in 2026. Solid labor market conditions and anchored long-term expectations further support holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. June CPI data due June 10 and any shifts in incoming employment or inflation readings represent the main swing factors that could alter this market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
거래량
$8,287,393종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April's 3.8% year-over-year CPI print—the highest since May 2023 and fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices—anchor the 93.5% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent data show headline and core measures both exceeding forecasts, prompting traders to assign just 4.9% odds to a 25 basis point hike and under 2% to any cut, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent stance and projections for limited easing later in 2026. Solid labor market conditions and anchored long-term expectations further support holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. June CPI data due June 10 and any shifts in incoming employment or inflation readings represent the main swing factors that could alter this market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$8,287,393종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April's 3.8% year-over-year CPI print—the highest since May 2023 and fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices—anchor the 93.5% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent data show headline and core measures both exceeding forecasts, prompting traders to assign just 4.9% odds to a 25 basis point hike and under 2% to any cut, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent stance and projections for limited easing later in 2026. Solid labor market conditions and anchored long-term expectations further support holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. June CPI data due June 10 and any shifts in incoming employment or inflation readings represent the main swing factors that could alter this market-implied path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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