Recent diplomatic activity has sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire first brokered in early April and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent catalyst occurred when Trump postponed planned military strikes against Iran following a new proposal from Tehran and requests from Gulf leaders, amid ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions relief. Intermittent violations, including drone activity and limited exchanges, have tested the truce, yet no major escalation has resumed. Traders monitor statements from Washington and Tehran alongside any scheduled diplomatic contacts or deadlines that could either solidify the pause or trigger renewed hostilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
$346,775 거래량
May 20
96%
May 21
86%
May 22
76%
May 24
67%
May 27
55%
May 31
46%
June 7
39%
June 15
37%
June 30
35%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$346,775 거래량
May 20
$101,494 거래량
96%
May 21
$109,038 거래량
86%
May 22
$53,553 거래량
76%
May 24
$28,874 거래량
67%
May 27
$21,121 거래량
55%
May 31
$15,055 거래량
46%
June 7
$4,662 거래량
39%
June 15
$7,353 거래량
37%
June 30
$7,749 거래량
35%
July 31
$6,156 거래량
30%
December 31
$7,987 거래량
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic activity has sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire first brokered in early April and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent catalyst occurred when Trump postponed planned military strikes against Iran following a new proposal from Tehran and requests from Gulf leaders, amid ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions relief. Intermittent violations, including drone activity and limited exchanges, have tested the truce, yet no major escalation has resumed. Traders monitor statements from Washington and Tehran alongside any scheduled diplomatic contacts or deadlines that could either solidify the pause or trigger renewed hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
거래량
$346,775마켓 개설일
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic activity has sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire first brokered in early April and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent catalyst occurred when Trump postponed planned military strikes against Iran following a new proposal from Tehran and requests from Gulf leaders, amid ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions relief. Intermittent violations, including drone activity and limited exchanges, have tested the truce, yet no major escalation has resumed. Traders monitor statements from Washington and Tehran alongside any scheduled diplomatic contacts or deadlines that could either solidify the pause or trigger renewed hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$346,775마켓 개설일
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic activity has sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire first brokered in early April and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent catalyst occurred when Trump postponed planned military strikes against Iran following a new proposal from Tehran and requests from Gulf leaders, amid ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions relief. Intermittent violations, including drone activity and limited exchanges, have tested the truce, yet no major escalation has resumed. Traders monitor statements from Washington and Tehran alongside any scheduled diplomatic contacts or deadlines that could either solidify the pause or trigger renewed hostilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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