Maryland’s 8th congressional district, anchored in Democratic-leaning Montgomery County suburbs outside Washington, D.C., has delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates, including incumbent Representative Jamie Raskin’s 76.8 percent share in 2024. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee a 94 percent implied probability. Limited Republican fundraising, weak primary challengers, and the district’s structural partisan voting index reinforce this positioning. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as the incumbent’s withdrawal before the June 23 Democratic primary, a major scandal, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the seat’s established lean.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$14,688 거래량
$14,688 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
$14,688 거래량
$14,688 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$6,455 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$8,232 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 8th congressional district, anchored in Democratic-leaning Montgomery County suburbs outside Washington, D.C., has delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates, including incumbent Representative Jamie Raskin’s 76.8 percent share in 2024. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee a 94 percent implied probability. Limited Republican fundraising, weak primary challengers, and the district’s structural partisan voting index reinforce this positioning. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as the incumbent’s withdrawal before the June 23 Democratic primary, a major scandal, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the seat’s established lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$14,688종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 8th congressional district, anchored in Democratic-leaning Montgomery County suburbs outside Washington, D.C., has delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates, including incumbent Representative Jamie Raskin’s 76.8 percent share in 2024. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee a 94 percent implied probability. Limited Republican fundraising, weak primary challengers, and the district’s structural partisan voting index reinforce this positioning. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as the incumbent’s withdrawal before the June 23 Democratic primary, a major scandal, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the seat’s established lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$14,688종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 8th congressional district, anchored in Democratic-leaning Montgomery County suburbs outside Washington, D.C., has delivered consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates, including incumbent Representative Jamie Raskin’s 76.8 percent share in 2024. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee a 94 percent implied probability. Limited Republican fundraising, weak primary challengers, and the district’s structural partisan voting index reinforce this positioning. A shift in odds would require an unforeseen event such as the incumbent’s withdrawal before the June 23 Democratic primary, a major scandal, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the seat’s established lean.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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