Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a slight edge to Yes at 53% for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027, driven by a grinding battlefield stalemate where Ukrainian drone strikes have offset slow Russian advances in the Donbas, fostering war fatigue amid the conflict's fifth year. Recent trilateral US-mediated peace talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi ended without breakthroughs in February, while mutual accusations of violating an Orthodox Easter truce last week underscore persistent distrust despite Zelenskyy's overtures. Balancing the odds are prospects for frozen conflict scenarios and US midterm elections in November 2026, which could shift aid flows; a major Russian offensive, Ukrainian territorial gains, or diplomatic escalation tied to Iran tensions might tip probabilities sharply.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$21,486 거래량
$21,486 거래량
2027.12.31
예
$21,486 거래량
$21,486 거래량
2027.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a slight edge to Yes at 53% for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027, driven by a grinding battlefield stalemate where Ukrainian drone strikes have offset slow Russian advances in the Donbas, fostering war fatigue amid the conflict's fifth year. Recent trilateral US-mediated peace talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi ended without breakthroughs in February, while mutual accusations of violating an Orthodox Easter truce last week underscore persistent distrust despite Zelenskyy's overtures. Balancing the odds are prospects for frozen conflict scenarios and US midterm elections in November 2026, which could shift aid flows; a major Russian offensive, Ukrainian territorial gains, or diplomatic escalation tied to Iran tensions might tip probabilities sharply.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
거래량
$21,486종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a slight edge to Yes at 53% for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027, driven by a grinding battlefield stalemate where Ukrainian drone strikes have offset slow Russian advances in the Donbas, fostering war fatigue amid the conflict's fifth year. Recent trilateral US-mediated peace talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi ended without breakthroughs in February, while mutual accusations of violating an Orthodox Easter truce last week underscore persistent distrust despite Zelenskyy's overtures. Balancing the odds are prospects for frozen conflict scenarios and US midterm elections in November 2026, which could shift aid flows; a major Russian offensive, Ukrainian territorial gains, or diplomatic escalation tied to Iran tensions might tip probabilities sharply.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$21,486종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a slight edge to Yes at 53% for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027, driven by a grinding battlefield stalemate where Ukrainian drone strikes have offset slow Russian advances in the Donbas, fostering war fatigue amid the conflict's fifth year. Recent trilateral US-mediated peace talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi ended without breakthroughs in February, while mutual accusations of violating an Orthodox Easter truce last week underscore persistent distrust despite Zelenskyy's overtures. Balancing the odds are prospects for frozen conflict scenarios and US midterm elections in November 2026, which could shift aid flows; a major Russian offensive, Ukrainian territorial gains, or diplomatic escalation tied to Iran tensions might tip probabilities sharply.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문