Russia's massive overnight barrage of over 300 drones and missiles against Ukraine on April 15 signals intensified frontline escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 98.2% against a full ceasefire by April 30 amid stalled diplomatic efforts. The brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 collapsed under mutual violation accusations, with combat swiftly resuming at full scale despite a pre-truce prisoner swap. Trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva remain paused over irreconcilable territorial disputes, as President Putin demands retention of occupied lands and President Zelenskyy anticipates prolonged military pressure. With two weeks remaining, only a sudden high-level concession or external mediation breakthrough could alter outcomes, though current dynamics render this highly unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$6,839,321 거래량
$6,839,321 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$6,839,321 거래량
$6,839,321 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Russia's massive overnight barrage of over 300 drones and missiles against Ukraine on April 15 signals intensified frontline escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 98.2% against a full ceasefire by April 30 amid stalled diplomatic efforts. The brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 collapsed under mutual violation accusations, with combat swiftly resuming at full scale despite a pre-truce prisoner swap. Trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva remain paused over irreconcilable territorial disputes, as President Putin demands retention of occupied lands and President Zelenskyy anticipates prolonged military pressure. With two weeks remaining, only a sudden high-level concession or external mediation breakthrough could alter outcomes, though current dynamics render this highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
거래량
$6,839,321종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Russia's massive overnight barrage of over 300 drones and missiles against Ukraine on April 15 signals intensified frontline escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 98.2% against a full ceasefire by April 30 amid stalled diplomatic efforts. The brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 collapsed under mutual violation accusations, with combat swiftly resuming at full scale despite a pre-truce prisoner swap. Trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva remain paused over irreconcilable territorial disputes, as President Putin demands retention of occupied lands and President Zelenskyy anticipates prolonged military pressure. With two weeks remaining, only a sudden high-level concession or external mediation breakthrough could alter outcomes, though current dynamics render this highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$6,839,321종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's massive overnight barrage of over 300 drones and missiles against Ukraine on April 15 signals intensified frontline escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 98.2% against a full ceasefire by April 30 amid stalled diplomatic efforts. The brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 collapsed under mutual violation accusations, with combat swiftly resuming at full scale despite a pre-truce prisoner swap. Trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva remain paused over irreconcilable territorial disputes, as President Putin demands retention of occupied lands and President Zelenskyy anticipates prolonged military pressure. With two weeks remaining, only a sudden high-level concession or external mediation breakthrough could alter outcomes, though current dynamics render this highly unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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