Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, driven by entrenched territorial disputes and stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral talks. A 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 ended amid mutual accusations of violations, underscoring fragile trust without extension or progress toward permanence. Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov noted advancing discussions but highlighted Donbas concessions as the core impasse, echoing Russia's demands for eastern withdrawals unmet by Kyiv. Ongoing front-line advances and a "situational pause" in diplomacy—tied partly to Middle East tensions—signal no imminent de-escalation, with recent POW swaps offering minor humanitarian gestures amid persistent military actions. Resumed talks loom but face high hurdles.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$14,068,338 거래량
$14,068,338 거래량
2026.12.31
4% 수익
예
$14,068,338 거래량
$14,068,338 거래량
2026.12.31
4% 수익
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, driven by entrenched territorial disputes and stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral talks. A 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 ended amid mutual accusations of violations, underscoring fragile trust without extension or progress toward permanence. Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov noted advancing discussions but highlighted Donbas concessions as the core impasse, echoing Russia's demands for eastern withdrawals unmet by Kyiv. Ongoing front-line advances and a "situational pause" in diplomacy—tied partly to Middle East tensions—signal no imminent de-escalation, with recent POW swaps offering minor humanitarian gestures amid persistent military actions. Resumed talks loom but face high hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
거래량
$14,068,338종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, driven by entrenched territorial disputes and stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral talks. A 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 ended amid mutual accusations of violations, underscoring fragile trust without extension or progress toward permanence. Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov noted advancing discussions but highlighted Donbas concessions as the core impasse, echoing Russia's demands for eastern withdrawals unmet by Kyiv. Ongoing front-line advances and a "situational pause" in diplomacy—tied partly to Middle East tensions—signal no imminent de-escalation, with recent POW swaps offering minor humanitarian gestures amid persistent military actions. Resumed talks loom but face high hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$14,068,338종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, driven by entrenched territorial disputes and stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral talks. A 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 ended amid mutual accusations of violations, underscoring fragile trust without extension or progress toward permanence. Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov noted advancing discussions but highlighted Donbas concessions as the core impasse, echoing Russia's demands for eastern withdrawals unmet by Kyiv. Ongoing front-line advances and a "situational pause" in diplomacy—tied partly to Middle East tensions—signal no imminent de-escalation, with recent POW swaps offering minor humanitarian gestures amid persistent military actions. Resumed talks loom but face high hurdles.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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