The trader consensus implying a 58% probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, reflects the collapse of a short-lived 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce announced April 9, amid mutual accusations of thousands of violations including drone strikes, shelling, and assaults. This incident highlights persistent military escalations, with recent Russian strikes on Kyiv killing at least 16, despite Zelenskyy's conditional offer to halt fighting if Moscow spares energy infrastructure. Stalled trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva yielded no progress, as Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas clash with Kyiv's insistence on security guarantees, reinforced by ongoing Western arms deliveries and no de-escalation signals in the past 30 days.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트러시아 x 2027년 6월 30일까지 우크라이나 휴전?
러시아 x 2027년 6월 30일까지 우크라이나 휴전?
예
$15,138 거래량
$15,138 거래량
2027.06.30
예
$15,138 거래량
$15,138 거래량
2027.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.The trader consensus implying a 58% probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, reflects the collapse of a short-lived 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce announced April 9, amid mutual accusations of thousands of violations including drone strikes, shelling, and assaults. This incident highlights persistent military escalations, with recent Russian strikes on Kyiv killing at least 16, despite Zelenskyy's conditional offer to halt fighting if Moscow spares energy infrastructure. Stalled trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva yielded no progress, as Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas clash with Kyiv's insistence on security guarantees, reinforced by ongoing Western arms deliveries and no de-escalation signals in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
거래량
$15,138종료일
2027.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.The trader consensus implying a 58% probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, reflects the collapse of a short-lived 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce announced April 9, amid mutual accusations of thousands of violations including drone strikes, shelling, and assaults. This incident highlights persistent military escalations, with recent Russian strikes on Kyiv killing at least 16, despite Zelenskyy's conditional offer to halt fighting if Moscow spares energy infrastructure. Stalled trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva yielded no progress, as Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas clash with Kyiv's insistence on security guarantees, reinforced by ongoing Western arms deliveries and no de-escalation signals in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$15,138종료일
2027.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The trader consensus implying a 58% probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, reflects the collapse of a short-lived 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce announced April 9, amid mutual accusations of thousands of violations including drone strikes, shelling, and assaults. This incident highlights persistent military escalations, with recent Russian strikes on Kyiv killing at least 16, despite Zelenskyy's conditional offer to halt fighting if Moscow spares energy infrastructure. Stalled trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva yielded no progress, as Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas clash with Kyiv's insistence on security guarantees, reinforced by ongoing Western arms deliveries and no de-escalation signals in the past 30 days.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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