Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar survey showing 52% yes among likely voters, position trader consensus toward a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment, with Pass 3-6% and 6-9% margins leading at 35.5% and 24.0% implied probabilities. However, early voting turnout disparities—10-16% in GOP-leaning areas versus under 5% in Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Prince William—signal potential enthusiasm gaps favoring no votes in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Democrats' heavy PAC spending (over $20 million) contrasts Republican grassroots mobilization framing the measure as overriding the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, tightening odds as projections like Quantus Insights show early votes leaning slightly no at 50.3-48.2%. Final mobilization and Election Day turnout will decide the closely contested margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 36%
Pass 6-9% 24%
No Pass 17.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,759 거래량
$10,759 거래량
2026.04.21
Pass 15%+
4%
Pass 12-15%
3%
Pass 9-12%
9%
Pass 6-9%
24%
Pass 3-6%
36%
Pass <3%
17%
No Pass
18%
Pass 3-6% 36%
Pass 6-9% 24%
No Pass 17.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,759 거래량
$10,759 거래량
2026.04.21
Pass 15%+
$1,232 거래량
4%
Pass 12-15%
$477 거래량
3%
Pass 9-12%
$1,313 거래량
9%
Pass 6-9%
$418 거래량
24%
Pass 3-6%
$1,233 거래량
36%
Pass <3%
$464 거래량
17%
No Pass
$5,622 거래량
18%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar survey showing 52% yes among likely voters, position trader consensus toward a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment, with Pass 3-6% and 6-9% margins leading at 35.5% and 24.0% implied probabilities. However, early voting turnout disparities—10-16% in GOP-leaning areas versus under 5% in Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Prince William—signal potential enthusiasm gaps favoring no votes in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Democrats' heavy PAC spending (over $20 million) contrasts Republican grassroots mobilization framing the measure as overriding the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, tightening odds as projections like Quantus Insights show early votes leaning slightly no at 50.3-48.2%. Final mobilization and Election Day turnout will decide the closely contested margin.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
거래량
$10,759종료일
2026.04.21마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar survey showing 52% yes among likely voters, position trader consensus toward a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment, with Pass 3-6% and 6-9% margins leading at 35.5% and 24.0% implied probabilities. However, early voting turnout disparities—10-16% in GOP-leaning areas versus under 5% in Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Prince William—signal potential enthusiasm gaps favoring no votes in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Democrats' heavy PAC spending (over $20 million) contrasts Republican grassroots mobilization framing the measure as overriding the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, tightening odds as projections like Quantus Insights show early votes leaning slightly no at 50.3-48.2%. Final mobilization and Election Day turnout will decide the closely contested margin.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
거래량
$10,759종료일
2026.04.21마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar survey showing 52% yes among likely voters, position trader consensus toward a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment, with Pass 3-6% and 6-9% margins leading at 35.5% and 24.0% implied probabilities. However, early voting turnout disparities—10-16% in GOP-leaning areas versus under 5% in Democratic strongholds like Fairfax and Prince William—signal potential enthusiasm gaps favoring no votes in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Democrats' heavy PAC spending (over $20 million) contrasts Republican grassroots mobilization framing the measure as overriding the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission, tightening odds as projections like Quantus Insights show early votes leaning slightly no at 50.3-48.2%. Final mobilization and Election Day turnout will decide the closely contested margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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