Washington's 2nd congressional district has shown consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, reflected in its D+12 partisan voter index and ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rick Larsen, first elected in 2000, faces a nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrats Devin Hermanson and Tomas Scheel plus Republican Edwin Feller, with no evidence of significant erosion in support or major new challengers emerging. This incumbency edge, combined with the district's suburban and coastal demographics stretching from the Canadian border through Bellingham and Everett, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. A realistic shift would require a substantial national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal affecting Larsen, or an unusually weak Democratic primary outcome that narrows the general-election margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,312 거래량
$11,312 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$11,312 거래량
$11,312 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$9,389 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$1,922 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 2nd congressional district has shown consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, reflected in its D+12 partisan voter index and ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rick Larsen, first elected in 2000, faces a nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrats Devin Hermanson and Tomas Scheel plus Republican Edwin Feller, with no evidence of significant erosion in support or major new challengers emerging. This incumbency edge, combined with the district's suburban and coastal demographics stretching from the Canadian border through Bellingham and Everett, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. A realistic shift would require a substantial national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal affecting Larsen, or an unusually weak Democratic primary outcome that narrows the general-election margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$11,312종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 2nd congressional district has shown consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, reflected in its D+12 partisan voter index and ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rick Larsen, first elected in 2000, faces a nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrats Devin Hermanson and Tomas Scheel plus Republican Edwin Feller, with no evidence of significant erosion in support or major new challengers emerging. This incumbency edge, combined with the district's suburban and coastal demographics stretching from the Canadian border through Bellingham and Everett, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. A realistic shift would require a substantial national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal affecting Larsen, or an unusually weak Democratic primary outcome that narrows the general-election margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$11,312종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington's 2nd congressional district has shown consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, reflected in its D+12 partisan voter index and ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rick Larsen, first elected in 2000, faces a nonpartisan top-two primary on August 4, 2026, against fellow Democrats Devin Hermanson and Tomas Scheel plus Republican Edwin Feller, with no evidence of significant erosion in support or major new challengers emerging. This incumbency edge, combined with the district's suburban and coastal demographics stretching from the Canadian border through Bellingham and Everett, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. A realistic shift would require a substantial national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal affecting Larsen, or an unusually weak Democratic primary outcome that narrows the general-election margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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