Ongoing diplomatic frictions with Iran, driven by its regional proxy activities and recent ballistic missile incidents, have produced a series of expulsions by multiple governments since March 2026, including actions by Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trader consensus at 100% Yes reflects the expectation that this pattern of declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata will continue within the narrow June 30 window, consistent with historical responses to similar escalations in Gulf and European capitals. Key influences include unresolved disputes over Hezbollah support, national security concerns cited in prior U.S. cases, and standard diplomatic retaliation cycles. Even at near-certainty levels, outcomes could shift if scheduled bilateral talks de-escalate tensions, if pending decisions are delayed beyond the deadline, or if verification of any expulsion is disputed by official channels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
$48,496 Wol.
$48,496 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
$48,496 Wol.
$48,496 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ongoing diplomatic frictions with Iran, driven by its regional proxy activities and recent ballistic missile incidents, have produced a series of expulsions by multiple governments since March 2026, including actions by Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trader consensus at 100% Yes reflects the expectation that this pattern of declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata will continue within the narrow June 30 window, consistent with historical responses to similar escalations in Gulf and European capitals. Key influences include unresolved disputes over Hezbollah support, national security concerns cited in prior U.S. cases, and standard diplomatic retaliation cycles. Even at near-certainty levels, outcomes could shift if scheduled bilateral talks de-escalate tensions, if pending decisions are delayed beyond the deadline, or if verification of any expulsion is disputed by official channels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$48,496Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ongoing diplomatic frictions with Iran, driven by its regional proxy activities and recent ballistic missile incidents, have produced a series of expulsions by multiple governments since March 2026, including actions by Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trader consensus at 100% Yes reflects the expectation that this pattern of declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata will continue within the narrow June 30 window, consistent with historical responses to similar escalations in Gulf and European capitals. Key influences include unresolved disputes over Hezbollah support, national security concerns cited in prior U.S. cases, and standard diplomatic retaliation cycles. Even at near-certainty levels, outcomes could shift if scheduled bilateral talks de-escalate tensions, if pending decisions are delayed beyond the deadline, or if verification of any expulsion is disputed by official channels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$48,496Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Ongoing diplomatic frictions with Iran, driven by its regional proxy activities and recent ballistic missile incidents, have produced a series of expulsions by multiple governments since March 2026, including actions by Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trader consensus at 100% Yes reflects the expectation that this pattern of declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata will continue within the narrow June 30 window, consistent with historical responses to similar escalations in Gulf and European capitals. Key influences include unresolved disputes over Hezbollah support, national security concerns cited in prior U.S. cases, and standard diplomatic retaliation cycles. Even at near-certainty levels, outcomes could shift if scheduled bilateral talks de-escalate tensions, if pending decisions are delayed beyond the deadline, or if verification of any expulsion is disputed by official channels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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