Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.6% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of concrete progress toward ending the 18-year conservatorship despite Trump administration rhetoric. Recent developments, including Michael Burry's March 2026 assessment of IPOs as a 2027 prospect at best and Barron's confirmation that Q1 plans evaporated without action, underscore stalled recapitalization milestones, FHFA regulatory hurdles, and risks of housing market disruption from hasty privatization. FHFA's focus remains on 2026 multifamily loan caps rather than exit pathways, with Treasury's senior preferred stock claims complicating valuation. Realistic challenges would require an abrupt FHFA announcement or executive order in the next 10 weeks, though capital buffers and political gridlock make this improbable absent major policy shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNo IPO by June 30, 2026 90.5%
150–200B 4.3%
300B+ 2.3%
200–250B 1.7%
$194,043 Wol.
$194,043 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
<150B
2%
150–200B
4%
200–250B
2%
250–300B
1%
300B+
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
90%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 90.5%
150–200B 4.3%
300B+ 2.3%
200–250B 1.7%
$194,043 Wol.
$194,043 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
<150B
$81,202 Wol.
2%
150–200B
$30,835 Wol.
4%
200–250B
$19,327 Wol.
2%
250–300B
$5,836 Wol.
1%
300B+
$11,031 Wol.
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$45,812 Wol.
90%
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.6% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of concrete progress toward ending the 18-year conservatorship despite Trump administration rhetoric. Recent developments, including Michael Burry's March 2026 assessment of IPOs as a 2027 prospect at best and Barron's confirmation that Q1 plans evaporated without action, underscore stalled recapitalization milestones, FHFA regulatory hurdles, and risks of housing market disruption from hasty privatization. FHFA's focus remains on 2026 multifamily loan caps rather than exit pathways, with Treasury's senior preferred stock claims complicating valuation. Realistic challenges would require an abrupt FHFA announcement or executive order in the next 10 weeks, though capital buffers and political gridlock make this improbable absent major policy shifts.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$194,043Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.6% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of concrete progress toward ending the 18-year conservatorship despite Trump administration rhetoric. Recent developments, including Michael Burry's March 2026 assessment of IPOs as a 2027 prospect at best and Barron's confirmation that Q1 plans evaporated without action, underscore stalled recapitalization milestones, FHFA regulatory hurdles, and risks of housing market disruption from hasty privatization. FHFA's focus remains on 2026 multifamily loan caps rather than exit pathways, with Treasury's senior preferred stock claims complicating valuation. Realistic challenges would require an abrupt FHFA announcement or executive order in the next 10 weeks, though capital buffers and political gridlock make this improbable absent major policy shifts.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Wolumen
$194,043Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.6% implied probability against a Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of concrete progress toward ending the 18-year conservatorship despite Trump administration rhetoric. Recent developments, including Michael Burry's March 2026 assessment of IPOs as a 2027 prospect at best and Barron's confirmation that Q1 plans evaporated without action, underscore stalled recapitalization milestones, FHFA regulatory hurdles, and risks of housing market disruption from hasty privatization. FHFA's focus remains on 2026 multifamily loan caps rather than exit pathways, with Treasury's senior preferred stock claims complicating valuation. Realistic challenges would require an abrupt FHFA announcement or executive order in the next 10 weeks, though capital buffers and political gridlock make this improbable absent major policy shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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