Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin peg the September 5 high near 98–100°F under sunny skies with south-southeast flow, consistent with ongoing late-summer heat but well below the market’s 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher. Persistent high dew points and heat indices near 110°F reflect strong moisture transport, yet model consensus shows limited daytime mixing or subsidence to push readings into triple digits. Historical data indicate September 5 averages 93.6°F with a 112°F record, so traders appear to weigh residual heat-wave potential and forecast uncertainty against the tightening two-day window. Upcoming NWS updates and any late-model shifts in steering or cloud cover will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Austin on September 5?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 5?
94-95°F 41%
92-93°F 35%
96-97°F 25%
90-91°F 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
35%
94-95°F
41%
96-97°F
25%
98-99°F
20%
100-101°F
17%
102-103°F
12%
104°F or higher
10%
94-95°F 41%
92-93°F 35%
96-97°F 25%
90-91°F 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
$0 Wol.
1%
86-87°F
$0 Wol.
2%
88-89°F
$0 Wol.
10%
90-91°F
$0 Wol.
21%
92-93°F
$0 Wol.
35%
94-95°F
$5 Wol.
41%
96-97°F
$0 Wol.
25%
98-99°F
$0 Wol.
20%
100-101°F
$0 Wol.
17%
102-103°F
$0 Wol.
12%
104°F or higher
$0 Wol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin peg the September 5 high near 98–100°F under sunny skies with south-southeast flow, consistent with ongoing late-summer heat but well below the market’s 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher. Persistent high dew points and heat indices near 110°F reflect strong moisture transport, yet model consensus shows limited daytime mixing or subsidence to push readings into triple digits. Historical data indicate September 5 averages 93.6°F with a 112°F record, so traders appear to weigh residual heat-wave potential and forecast uncertainty against the tightening two-day window. Upcoming NWS updates and any late-model shifts in steering or cloud cover will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin peg the September 5 high near 98–100°F under sunny skies with south-southeast flow, consistent with ongoing late-summer heat but well below the market’s 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher. Persistent high dew points and heat indices near 110°F reflect strong moisture transport, yet model consensus shows limited daytime mixing or subsidence to push readings into triple digits. Historical data indicate September 5 averages 93.6°F with a 112°F record, so traders appear to weigh residual heat-wave potential and forecast uncertainty against the tightening two-day window. Upcoming NWS updates and any late-model shifts in steering or cloud cover will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin peg the September 5 high near 98–100°F under sunny skies with south-southeast flow, consistent with ongoing late-summer heat but well below the market’s 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher. Persistent high dew points and heat indices near 110°F reflect strong moisture transport, yet model consensus shows limited daytime mixing or subsidence to push readings into triple digits. Historical data indicate September 5 averages 93.6°F with a 112°F record, so traders appear to weigh residual heat-wave potential and forecast uncertainty against the tightening two-day window. Upcoming NWS updates and any late-model shifts in steering or cloud cover will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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