Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a Chicago high near 80–83°F on August 15, positioning the 80–81°F bin at 40% implied probability and 82–83°F at 29%. These outcomes align closely with the 1991–2020 August 15 normal of 82.8°F while reflecting modest cooling from prevailing synoptic patterns, including increased cloud cover and limited warm-air advection. Shorter-range runs show low potential for stronger heating or convective suppression that could push readings into the mid-80s, keeping higher bins under 11% combined. Traders weigh the narrow spread in deterministic and probabilistic guidance against residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing, with the next model updates expected to refine the peak within the 78–85°F window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 13%
84-85°F 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 13%
84-85°F 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
75°F or below
$490 Wol.
1%
76-77°F
$575 Wol.
4%
78-79°F
$44 Wol.
13%
80-81°F
$755 Wol.
40%
82-83°F
$243 Wol.
29%
84-85°F
$227 Wol.
12%
86-87°F
$293 Wol.
2%
88-89°F
$354 Wol.
1%
90-91°F
$111 Wol.
<1%
92-93°F
$153 Wol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$158 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a Chicago high near 80–83°F on August 15, positioning the 80–81°F bin at 40% implied probability and 82–83°F at 29%. These outcomes align closely with the 1991–2020 August 15 normal of 82.8°F while reflecting modest cooling from prevailing synoptic patterns, including increased cloud cover and limited warm-air advection. Shorter-range runs show low potential for stronger heating or convective suppression that could push readings into the mid-80s, keeping higher bins under 11% combined. Traders weigh the narrow spread in deterministic and probabilistic guidance against residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing, with the next model updates expected to refine the peak within the 78–85°F window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,403Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a Chicago high near 80–83°F on August 15, positioning the 80–81°F bin at 40% implied probability and 82–83°F at 29%. These outcomes align closely with the 1991–2020 August 15 normal of 82.8°F while reflecting modest cooling from prevailing synoptic patterns, including increased cloud cover and limited warm-air advection. Shorter-range runs show low potential for stronger heating or convective suppression that could push readings into the mid-80s, keeping higher bins under 11% combined. Traders weigh the narrow spread in deterministic and probabilistic guidance against residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing, with the next model updates expected to refine the peak within the 78–85°F window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,403Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a Chicago high near 80–83°F on August 15, positioning the 80–81°F bin at 40% implied probability and 82–83°F at 29%. These outcomes align closely with the 1991–2020 August 15 normal of 82.8°F while reflecting modest cooling from prevailing synoptic patterns, including increased cloud cover and limited warm-air advection. Shorter-range runs show low potential for stronger heating or convective suppression that could push readings into the mid-80s, keeping higher bins under 11% combined. Traders weigh the narrow spread in deterministic and probabilistic guidance against residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing, with the next model updates expected to refine the peak within the 78–85°F window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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