Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a mix of showers and variable cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 4 that is likely to limit peak insolation and keep the daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Persistent humidity, southeasterly flow, and possible convective activity introduce uncertainty, as thicker cloud decks or earlier rainfall can suppress temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings to reach 31 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 28–31 °C outcomes. Updated numerical guidance and Hong Kong Observatory briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
29°C 33%
30°C 30%
28°C 22%
31°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
22%
29°C
33%
30°C
30%
31°C
13%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 33%
30°C 30%
28°C 22%
31°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
$185 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$174 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$105 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$174 Wol.
1%
27°C
$200 Wol.
6%
28°C
$268 Wol.
22%
29°C
$187 Wol.
33%
30°C
$500 Wol.
30%
31°C
$234 Wol.
13%
32°C
$254 Wol.
3%
33°C or higher
$291 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a mix of showers and variable cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 4 that is likely to limit peak insolation and keep the daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Persistent humidity, southeasterly flow, and possible convective activity introduce uncertainty, as thicker cloud decks or earlier rainfall can suppress temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings to reach 31 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 28–31 °C outcomes. Updated numerical guidance and Hong Kong Observatory briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,570Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a mix of showers and variable cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 4 that is likely to limit peak insolation and keep the daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Persistent humidity, southeasterly flow, and possible convective activity introduce uncertainty, as thicker cloud decks or earlier rainfall can suppress temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings to reach 31 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 28–31 °C outcomes. Updated numerical guidance and Hong Kong Observatory briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$2,570Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a mix of showers and variable cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 4 that is likely to limit peak insolation and keep the daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Persistent humidity, southeasterly flow, and possible convective activity introduce uncertainty, as thicker cloud decks or earlier rainfall can suppress temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings to reach 31 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 28–31 °C outcomes. Updated numerical guidance and Hong Kong Observatory briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania