Latest AEMET and European model consensus supports a Madrid high near 36–37°C on August 17, driven by a stable subtropical ridge delivering clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong daytime insolation at the official Barajas station. Recent runs show limited cloud cover and minimal moisture to suppress peaks, consistent with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 37°C and secondary weighting toward 38°C. Ensemble spreads occasionally reach 38–39°C under maximum solar heating, while any overnight cooling or brief convective development could cap readings at 36°C. Historical mid-August climatology averages 30–32°C, so the current pattern reflects anomalous ridging that traders are pricing against official verification criteria. Updated short-range guidance and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 17?
37°C 57%
38°C 21%
36°C 19%
39°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 17, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
5%
36°C
19%
37°C
57%
38°C
21%
39°C
6%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 57%
38°C 21%
36°C 19%
39°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 17, 2026
32°C or below
$24 Wol.
<1%
33°C
$24 Wol.
<1%
34°C
$33 Wol.
1%
35°C
$168 Wol.
5%
36°C
$656 Wol.
19%
37°C
$397 Wol.
57%
38°C
$548 Wol.
21%
39°C
$61 Wol.
6%
40°C
$15 Wol.
1%
41°C
$25 Wol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$94 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and European model consensus supports a Madrid high near 36–37°C on August 17, driven by a stable subtropical ridge delivering clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong daytime insolation at the official Barajas station. Recent runs show limited cloud cover and minimal moisture to suppress peaks, consistent with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 37°C and secondary weighting toward 38°C. Ensemble spreads occasionally reach 38–39°C under maximum solar heating, while any overnight cooling or brief convective development could cap readings at 36°C. Historical mid-August climatology averages 30–32°C, so the current pattern reflects anomalous ridging that traders are pricing against official verification criteria. Updated short-range guidance and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,045Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and European model consensus supports a Madrid high near 36–37°C on August 17, driven by a stable subtropical ridge delivering clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong daytime insolation at the official Barajas station. Recent runs show limited cloud cover and minimal moisture to suppress peaks, consistent with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 37°C and secondary weighting toward 38°C. Ensemble spreads occasionally reach 38–39°C under maximum solar heating, while any overnight cooling or brief convective development could cap readings at 36°C. Historical mid-August climatology averages 30–32°C, so the current pattern reflects anomalous ridging that traders are pricing against official verification criteria. Updated short-range guidance and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,045Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET and European model consensus supports a Madrid high near 36–37°C on August 17, driven by a stable subtropical ridge delivering clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong daytime insolation at the official Barajas station. Recent runs show limited cloud cover and minimal moisture to suppress peaks, consistent with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 37°C and secondary weighting toward 38°C. Ensemble spreads occasionally reach 38–39°C under maximum solar heating, while any overnight cooling or brief convective development could cap readings at 36°C. Historical mid-August climatology averages 30–32°C, so the current pattern reflects anomalous ridging that traders are pricing against official verification criteria. Updated short-range guidance and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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