Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 19°C high in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting peak temperatures just below 20°C amid a persistent cool spell with northerly flows suppressing heat advection. Clear skies noted in early-morning updates from the Hong Kong Observatory (10–20°C range) support limited daytime heating, aligning with late-April climatology averaging 20°C but tempered by recent cooler-than-normal days, including yesterday's sub-15°C maximum. Resolution hinges on official Xujiahui station observations by midnight; a rare southerly wind shift or prolonged sunshine could realistically challenge this to 20–21°C, though current guidance shows negligible odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 30?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 30?
19°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$168,023 Wol.
$168,023 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$168,023 Wol.
$168,023 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
13°C or below
$3,828 Wol.
No
14°C
$3,977 Wol.
No
15°C
$9,200 Wol.
No
16°C
$7,483 Wol.
No
17°C
$24,957 Wol.
No
18°C
$18,203 Wol.
No
19°C
$21,481 Wol.
Yes
20°C
$33,368 Wol.
No
21°C
$19,000 Wol.
No
22°C
$12,329 Wol.
No
23°C or higher
$14,196 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 19°C high in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting peak temperatures just below 20°C amid a persistent cool spell with northerly flows suppressing heat advection. Clear skies noted in early-morning updates from the Hong Kong Observatory (10–20°C range) support limited daytime heating, aligning with late-April climatology averaging 20°C but tempered by recent cooler-than-normal days, including yesterday's sub-15°C maximum. Resolution hinges on official Xujiahui station observations by midnight; a rare southerly wind shift or prolonged sunshine could realistically challenge this to 20–21°C, though current guidance shows negligible odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ET
Wolumen
$168,023Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 19°C high in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting peak temperatures just below 20°C amid a persistent cool spell with northerly flows suppressing heat advection. Clear skies noted in early-morning updates from the Hong Kong Observatory (10–20°C range) support limited daytime heating, aligning with late-April climatology averaging 20°C but tempered by recent cooler-than-normal days, including yesterday's sub-15°C maximum. Resolution hinges on official Xujiahui station observations by midnight; a rare southerly wind shift or prolonged sunshine could realistically challenge this to 20–21°C, though current guidance shows negligible odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$168,023Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 19°C high in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting peak temperatures just below 20°C amid a persistent cool spell with northerly flows suppressing heat advection. Clear skies noted in early-morning updates from the Hong Kong Observatory (10–20°C range) support limited daytime heating, aligning with late-April climatology averaging 20°C but tempered by recent cooler-than-normal days, including yesterday's sub-15°C maximum. Resolution hinges on official Xujiahui station observations by midnight; a rare southerly wind shift or prolonged sunshine could realistically challenge this to 20–21°C, though current guidance shows negligible odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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