Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 11, 2026, anchored by official hourly observations from the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport meteorological station—which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds below 12 km/h. Short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF aligned with this outcome, projecting highs in the upper 20s°C amid moderate humidity and stable high-pressure influence typical for early May in the Yangtze River Delta. While temperatures have since trended downward into the evening, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from enhanced solar insolation or sudden wind shift, with final daily maximum data expected from official reports within 24 hours.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 11?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 11?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$323,672 Wol.
$323,672 Wol.
May 11, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$323,672 Wol.
$323,672 Wol.
May 11, 2026
21°C or below
$10,067 Wol.
No
22°C
$8,832 Wol.
No
23°C
$8,074 Wol.
No
24°C
$13,587 Wol.
No
25°C
$13,220 Wol.
No
26°C
$13,693 Wol.
No
27°C
$20,922 Wol.
No
28°C
$24,395 Wol.
No
29°C
$35,564 Wol.
Yes
30°C
$107,250 Wol.
No
31°C or higher
$68,070 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 11, 2026, anchored by official hourly observations from the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport meteorological station—which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds below 12 km/h. Short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF aligned with this outcome, projecting highs in the upper 20s°C amid moderate humidity and stable high-pressure influence typical for early May in the Yangtze River Delta. While temperatures have since trended downward into the evening, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from enhanced solar insolation or sudden wind shift, with final daily maximum data expected from official reports within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 9, 2026, 6:35 AM ET
Wolumen
$323,672Data zakończenia
May 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 9, 2026, 6:35 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 11, 2026, anchored by official hourly observations from the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport meteorological station—which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds below 12 km/h. Short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF aligned with this outcome, projecting highs in the upper 20s°C amid moderate humidity and stable high-pressure influence typical for early May in the Yangtze River Delta. While temperatures have since trended downward into the evening, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from enhanced solar insolation or sudden wind shift, with final daily maximum data expected from official reports within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$323,672Data zakończenia
May 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 9, 2026, 6:35 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 11, 2026, anchored by official hourly observations from the resolution source—Shanghai Pudong International Airport meteorological station—which recorded a midday peak of 29°C under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds below 12 km/h. Short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF aligned with this outcome, projecting highs in the upper 20s°C amid moderate humidity and stable high-pressure influence typical for early May in the Yangtze River Delta. While temperatures have since trended downward into the evening, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from enhanced solar insolation or sudden wind shift, with final daily maximum data expected from official reports within 24 hours.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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