Recent MetService forecasts and supporting model guidance point to a maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 9 under a building high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds shifting to northerlies by afternoon and mostly clear skies. Spring climatology for the region centers on 13–15°C daytime highs, and current ensemble runs show limited spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling advection. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 14°C reflects trader weighting of the upper end of this narrow forecast range, while the combined 34% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing ahead of the next front. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
14°C 66%
15°C 18%
13°C 17%
12°C 2%
NOWE
$12,444 Wol.
NOWE
$12,444 Wol.
Sep 9, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
17%
14°C
66%
15°C
18%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 66%
15°C 18%
13°C 17%
12°C 2%
NOWE
$12,444 Wol.
NOWE
$12,444 Wol.
Sep 9, 2026
8°C or below
$1,366 Wol.
<1%
9°C
$355 Wol.
<1%
10°C
$419 Wol.
<1%
11°C
$847 Wol.
1%
12°C
$850 Wol.
2%
13°C
$1,716 Wol.
17%
14°C
$2,585 Wol.
66%
15°C
$2,205 Wol.
18%
16°C
$693 Wol.
1%
17°C
$790 Wol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$616 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService forecasts and supporting model guidance point to a maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 9 under a building high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds shifting to northerlies by afternoon and mostly clear skies. Spring climatology for the region centers on 13–15°C daytime highs, and current ensemble runs show limited spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling advection. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 14°C reflects trader weighting of the upper end of this narrow forecast range, while the combined 34% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing ahead of the next front. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$12,444Data zakończenia
Sep 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService forecasts and supporting model guidance point to a maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 9 under a building high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds shifting to northerlies by afternoon and mostly clear skies. Spring climatology for the region centers on 13–15°C daytime highs, and current ensemble runs show limited spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling advection. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 14°C reflects trader weighting of the upper end of this narrow forecast range, while the combined 34% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing ahead of the next front. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$12,444Data zakończenia
Sep 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService forecasts and supporting model guidance point to a maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 9 under a building high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds shifting to northerlies by afternoon and mostly clear skies. Spring climatology for the region centers on 13–15°C daytime highs, and current ensemble runs show limited spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling advection. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 14°C reflects trader weighting of the upper end of this narrow forecast range, while the combined 34% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing ahead of the next front. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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