Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn seeks a third term in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, a southwestern Iowa seat including Des Moines that he carried by roughly four points in 2024. Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott secured her party’s nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary and faces Nunn in the November general election, with a Libertarian also on the ballot. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 66.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting midterm-cycle dynamics that have historically disadvantaged the president’s party alongside Democratic fundraising advantages in the race. Polling from earlier in the cycle showed a narrower Republican edge, leaving room for late-cycle shifts driven by turnout, national conditions, or candidate-specific developments before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
67%
Republican Party
33%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,869 Wol.
67%
Republican Party
$2,918 Wol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn seeks a third term in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, a southwestern Iowa seat including Des Moines that he carried by roughly four points in 2024. Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott secured her party’s nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary and faces Nunn in the November general election, with a Libertarian also on the ballot. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 66.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting midterm-cycle dynamics that have historically disadvantaged the president’s party alongside Democratic fundraising advantages in the race. Polling from earlier in the cycle showed a narrower Republican edge, leaving room for late-cycle shifts driven by turnout, national conditions, or candidate-specific developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Wolumen
$5,786Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn seeks a third term in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, a southwestern Iowa seat including Des Moines that he carried by roughly four points in 2024. Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott secured her party’s nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary and faces Nunn in the November general election, with a Libertarian also on the ballot. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 66.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting midterm-cycle dynamics that have historically disadvantaged the president’s party alongside Democratic fundraising advantages in the race. Polling from earlier in the cycle showed a narrower Republican edge, leaving room for late-cycle shifts driven by turnout, national conditions, or candidate-specific developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$5,786Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn seeks a third term in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, a southwestern Iowa seat including Des Moines that he carried by roughly four points in 2024. Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott secured her party’s nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary and faces Nunn in the November general election, with a Libertarian also on the ballot. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 66.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting midterm-cycle dynamics that have historically disadvantaged the president’s party alongside Democratic fundraising advantages in the race. Polling from earlier in the cycle showed a narrower Republican edge, leaving room for late-cycle shifts driven by turnout, national conditions, or candidate-specific developments before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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