Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages as incumbent, with recent surveys from July and August 2026 showing him ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points in first-round voting intentions. His position draws from broad support across the state’s interior municipalities and alignment with right-leaning coalitions ahead of the October 4 first round. Haddad’s campaign, backed by the Workers’ Party, trails amid lower statewide recognition in this contest. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register negligible shares. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these structural and survey trends, though shifts could arise from turnout variations, late alliances, or national political developments before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,049 Wol.
$279,049 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,049 Wol.
$279,049 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$123,014 Wol.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$46,886 Wol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Wol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Wol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Wol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages as incumbent, with recent surveys from July and August 2026 showing him ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points in first-round voting intentions. His position draws from broad support across the state’s interior municipalities and alignment with right-leaning coalitions ahead of the October 4 first round. Haddad’s campaign, backed by the Workers’ Party, trails amid lower statewide recognition in this contest. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register negligible shares. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these structural and survey trends, though shifts could arise from turnout variations, late alliances, or national political developments before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$279,049Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages as incumbent, with recent surveys from July and August 2026 showing him ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points in first-round voting intentions. His position draws from broad support across the state’s interior municipalities and alignment with right-leaning coalitions ahead of the October 4 first round. Haddad’s campaign, backed by the Workers’ Party, trails amid lower statewide recognition in this contest. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register negligible shares. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these structural and survey trends, though shifts could arise from turnout variations, late alliances, or national political developments before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$279,049Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages as incumbent, with recent surveys from July and August 2026 showing him ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points in first-round voting intentions. His position draws from broad support across the state’s interior municipalities and alignment with right-leaning coalitions ahead of the October 4 first round. Haddad’s campaign, backed by the Workers’ Party, trails amid lower statewide recognition in this contest. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton and Kim Kataguiri register negligible shares. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these structural and survey trends, though shifts could arise from turnout variations, late alliances, or national political developments before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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