Iowa’s 4th Congressional District remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa, anchored by rural and agricultural voters who have delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the governorship has not altered this baseline, as Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed following a Trump endorsement and now faces Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current 92.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A national Democratic surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and the compressed timeline to November limit realistic paths for a Democratic upset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
$32,156 Wol.
$32,156 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$32,156 Wol.
$32,156 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,064 Wol.
93%
Democratic Party
$12,091 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 4th Congressional District remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa, anchored by rural and agricultural voters who have delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the governorship has not altered this baseline, as Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed following a Trump endorsement and now faces Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current 92.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A national Democratic surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and the compressed timeline to November limit realistic paths for a Democratic upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$32,156Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa’s 4th Congressional District remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa, anchored by rural and agricultural voters who have delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the governorship has not altered this baseline, as Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed following a Trump endorsement and now faces Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current 92.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A national Democratic surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and the compressed timeline to November limit realistic paths for a Democratic upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$32,156Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa’s 4th Congressional District remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwestern Iowa, anchored by rural and agricultural voters who have delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Randy Feenstra’s retirement to pursue the governorship has not altered this baseline, as Republican nominee Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed following a Trump endorsement and now faces Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current 92.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. A national Democratic surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and the compressed timeline to November limit realistic paths for a Democratic upset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania