Christina Bohannan holds a polling edge over incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s 1st congressional district, with a July 2026 survey showing the Democrat at 40% to the Republican’s 35% and an independent at 11%. Both candidates cleared their June primaries by wide margins and have raised comparable funds near $7 million. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting Miller-Meeks’s narrow 2024 win and national conditions that have pressured Republican incumbents. Traders assign Democrats a 71% implied probability of victory, consistent with Bohannan’s modest lead and the district’s competitive history, though an independent candidate and remaining campaign developments could still shift the outcome before the November general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIA-01 House Election Winner
IA-01 House Election Winner
$27,476 Wol.
$27,476 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
71%
Republican Party
30%
$27,476 Wol.
$27,476 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,286 Wol.
71%
Republican Party
$9,190 Wol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christina Bohannan holds a polling edge over incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s 1st congressional district, with a July 2026 survey showing the Democrat at 40% to the Republican’s 35% and an independent at 11%. Both candidates cleared their June primaries by wide margins and have raised comparable funds near $7 million. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting Miller-Meeks’s narrow 2024 win and national conditions that have pressured Republican incumbents. Traders assign Democrats a 71% implied probability of victory, consistent with Bohannan’s modest lead and the district’s competitive history, though an independent candidate and remaining campaign developments could still shift the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$27,476Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christina Bohannan holds a polling edge over incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s 1st congressional district, with a July 2026 survey showing the Democrat at 40% to the Republican’s 35% and an independent at 11%. Both candidates cleared their June primaries by wide margins and have raised comparable funds near $7 million. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting Miller-Meeks’s narrow 2024 win and national conditions that have pressured Republican incumbents. Traders assign Democrats a 71% implied probability of victory, consistent with Bohannan’s modest lead and the district’s competitive history, though an independent candidate and remaining campaign developments could still shift the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$27,476Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Christina Bohannan holds a polling edge over incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s 1st congressional district, with a July 2026 survey showing the Democrat at 40% to the Republican’s 35% and an independent at 11%. Both candidates cleared their June primaries by wide margins and have raised comparable funds near $7 million. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting Miller-Meeks’s narrow 2024 win and national conditions that have pressured Republican incumbents. Traders assign Democrats a 71% implied probability of victory, consistent with Bohannan’s modest lead and the district’s competitive history, though an independent candidate and remaining campaign developments could still shift the outcome before the November general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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