Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate overnight lows for Dallas on August 21 near 82–84°F amid persistent high pressure and elevated dew points typical of late-summer subtropical conditions. Limited radiative cooling from humidity and light winds, combined with the absence of a reinforcing cold front since early August, supports this range rather than deeper cooling to the mid-70s. Historical climatology shows mid-August minimums averaging 75–77°F, yet recent heat-wave persistence and above-normal soil moisture have kept recent observed lows in the low 80s. Traders appear to weigh these variables against forecast uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, producing closely matched probabilities across the 80–87°F bins.