Trader consensus shows near-even odds across bins from 21°C to 31°C+ because short-range ensemble forecasts for Manila on September 19 display high sensitivity to overnight cloud cover and rainfall under the southwest monsoon. PAGASA and global models indicate typical September minima near 24–26°C, with divergence arising from uncertain convective activity that modulates radiative cooling; clearer skies would favor lower readings while persistent showers raise them. Historical records show rare dips below 22°C absent a nearby tropical cyclone, while Manila’s urban heat island effect tends to limit extremes. Next model cycles and official guidance updates will refine the probability distribution ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Manila on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 19?
21°C or below 98%
31°C or higher 98%
27°C 40%
22°C 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
21°C or below
98%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
21%
26°C
21%
27°C
40%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
98%
21°C or below 98%
31°C or higher 98%
27°C 40%
22°C 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Wol.
98%
22°C
$0 Wol.
39%
23°C
$0 Wol.
39%
24°C
$0 Wol.
39%
25°C
$0 Wol.
21%
26°C
$0 Wol.
21%
27°C
$0 Wol.
40%
28°C
$0 Wol.
39%
29°C
$0 Wol.
39%
30°C
$0 Wol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Wol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows near-even odds across bins from 21°C to 31°C+ because short-range ensemble forecasts for Manila on September 19 display high sensitivity to overnight cloud cover and rainfall under the southwest monsoon. PAGASA and global models indicate typical September minima near 24–26°C, with divergence arising from uncertain convective activity that modulates radiative cooling; clearer skies would favor lower readings while persistent showers raise them. Historical records show rare dips below 22°C absent a nearby tropical cyclone, while Manila’s urban heat island effect tends to limit extremes. Next model cycles and official guidance updates will refine the probability distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 12:32 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows near-even odds across bins from 21°C to 31°C+ because short-range ensemble forecasts for Manila on September 19 display high sensitivity to overnight cloud cover and rainfall under the southwest monsoon. PAGASA and global models indicate typical September minima near 24–26°C, with divergence arising from uncertain convective activity that modulates radiative cooling; clearer skies would favor lower readings while persistent showers raise them. Historical records show rare dips below 22°C absent a nearby tropical cyclone, while Manila’s urban heat island effect tends to limit extremes. Next model cycles and official guidance updates will refine the probability distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 12:32 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows near-even odds across bins from 21°C to 31°C+ because short-range ensemble forecasts for Manila on September 19 display high sensitivity to overnight cloud cover and rainfall under the southwest monsoon. PAGASA and global models indicate typical September minima near 24–26°C, with divergence arising from uncertain convective activity that modulates radiative cooling; clearer skies would favor lower readings while persistent showers raise them. Historical records show rare dips below 22°C absent a nearby tropical cyclone, while Manila’s urban heat island effect tends to limit extremes. Next model cycles and official guidance updates will refine the probability distribution ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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