Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF point to partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms and showers over Metro Manila on September 18, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon. These conditions introduce variability in peak heating, as afternoon convection can suppress maximum temperatures depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology shows September daily highs averaging near 32°C, with the current setup favoring a narrow range around 31–33°C. Trader consensus reflects this tight distribution, with 32°C and 33°C leading at 41% and 39.5% implied probability, while lower or higher outcomes remain sidelined absent major shifts in monsoon moisture or model runs. Updated agency briefings and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria for the daily maximum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on September 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 18?
32°C 41%
33°C 32%
31°C 20%
34°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
28°C or below
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
20%
32°C
41%
33°C
32%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 41%
33°C 32%
31°C 20%
34°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
28°C or below
$102 Wol.
2%
29°C
$201 Wol.
2%
30°C
$663 Wol.
2%
31°C
$1,474 Wol.
20%
32°C
$1,495 Wol.
41%
33°C
$4,559 Wol.
32%
34°C
$941 Wol.
3%
35°C
$22 Wol.
2%
36°C
$0 Wol.
2%
37°C
$169 Wol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$225 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF point to partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms and showers over Metro Manila on September 18, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon. These conditions introduce variability in peak heating, as afternoon convection can suppress maximum temperatures depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology shows September daily highs averaging near 32°C, with the current setup favoring a narrow range around 31–33°C. Trader consensus reflects this tight distribution, with 32°C and 33°C leading at 41% and 39.5% implied probability, while lower or higher outcomes remain sidelined absent major shifts in monsoon moisture or model runs. Updated agency briefings and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria for the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Wolumen
$9,851Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF point to partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms and showers over Metro Manila on September 18, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon. These conditions introduce variability in peak heating, as afternoon convection can suppress maximum temperatures depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology shows September daily highs averaging near 32°C, with the current setup favoring a narrow range around 31–33°C. Trader consensus reflects this tight distribution, with 32°C and 33°C leading at 41% and 39.5% implied probability, while lower or higher outcomes remain sidelined absent major shifts in monsoon moisture or model runs. Updated agency briefings and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria for the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$9,851Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF point to partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms and showers over Metro Manila on September 18, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon. These conditions introduce variability in peak heating, as afternoon convection can suppress maximum temperatures depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology shows September daily highs averaging near 32°C, with the current setup favoring a narrow range around 31–33°C. Trader consensus reflects this tight distribution, with 32°C and 33°C leading at 41% and 39.5% implied probability, while lower or higher outcomes remain sidelined absent major shifts in monsoon moisture or model runs. Updated agency briefings and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria for the daily maximum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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