Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?
24°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 Wol.
$92,911 Wol.
Jul 18, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 Wol.
$92,911 Wol.
Jul 18, 2026
23°C or below
$5,158 Wol.
No
24°C
$5,202 Wol.
Yes
25°C
$20,915 Wol.
No
26°C
$23,410 Wol.
No
27°C
$4,775 Wol.
No
28°C
$12,798 Wol.
No
29°C
$6,126 Wol.
No
30°C
$5,940 Wol.
No
31°C
$7,394 Wol.
No
32°C
$726 Wol.
No
33°C or higher
$468 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$92,911Data zakończenia
Jul 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$92,911Data zakończenia
Jul 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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