Tight clustering of implied probabilities around 13–16°C (each 28–30%) for Toronto’s lowest temperature on August 21 reflects persistent forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from Environment and Climate Change Canada highlights variable cloud cover and light winds that limit clear-sky heat loss, while Lake Ontario’s moderating influence keeps minimums from dropping below 13°C in most model runs. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to subtle differences in frontal timing and urban heat-island effects, with only low single-digit odds assigned to sub-12°C or 17°C+ outcomes. Updated model guidance later today will likely tighten the distribution ahead of final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Toronto on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 21?
15°C 31%
14°C 28%
16°C 28%
11°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
28%
12°C
28%
13°C
29%
14°C
28%
15°C
31%
16°C
28%
17°C
27%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 31%
14°C 28%
16°C 28%
11°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
$110 Wol.
<1%
10°C
$92 Wol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Wol.
28%
12°C
$0 Wol.
28%
13°C
$9 Wol.
29%
14°C
$0 Wol.
28%
15°C
$0 Wol.
31%
16°C
$0 Wol.
28%
17°C
$0 Wol.
27%
18°C
$82 Wol.
1%
19°C or higher
$252 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tight clustering of implied probabilities around 13–16°C (each 28–30%) for Toronto’s lowest temperature on August 21 reflects persistent forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from Environment and Climate Change Canada highlights variable cloud cover and light winds that limit clear-sky heat loss, while Lake Ontario’s moderating influence keeps minimums from dropping below 13°C in most model runs. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to subtle differences in frontal timing and urban heat-island effects, with only low single-digit odds assigned to sub-12°C or 17°C+ outcomes. Updated model guidance later today will likely tighten the distribution ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$545Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tight clustering of implied probabilities around 13–16°C (each 28–30%) for Toronto’s lowest temperature on August 21 reflects persistent forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from Environment and Climate Change Canada highlights variable cloud cover and light winds that limit clear-sky heat loss, while Lake Ontario’s moderating influence keeps minimums from dropping below 13°C in most model runs. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to subtle differences in frontal timing and urban heat-island effects, with only low single-digit odds assigned to sub-12°C or 17°C+ outcomes. Updated model guidance later today will likely tighten the distribution ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$545Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight clustering of implied probabilities around 13–16°C (each 28–30%) for Toronto’s lowest temperature on August 21 reflects persistent forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from Environment and Climate Change Canada highlights variable cloud cover and light winds that limit clear-sky heat loss, while Lake Ontario’s moderating influence keeps minimums from dropping below 13°C in most model runs. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to subtle differences in frontal timing and urban heat-island effects, with only low single-digit odds assigned to sub-12°C or 17°C+ outcomes. Updated model guidance later today will likely tighten the distribution ahead of final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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