**Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican structural advantage heading into the November 3, 2026, general election.** The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12, reflecting consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80% in the March 2026 primary, while Democratic nominee Jason Pearce advanced with minimal fundraising and no public polling showing a competitive race. Rating firms including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Safe or Solid Republican. Broader Texas redistricting changes have further entrenched GOP advantages in most districts. Trader consensus at roughly 94-95% for a Republican win aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major scandal, or dramatic turnout change, none of which current indicators suggest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTX-04 House Election Winner
TX-04 House Election Winner
$39,471 Wol.
$39,471 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$39,471 Wol.
$39,471 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$21,672 Wol.
95%
Democratic Party
$17,800 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican structural advantage heading into the November 3, 2026, general election.** The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12, reflecting consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80% in the March 2026 primary, while Democratic nominee Jason Pearce advanced with minimal fundraising and no public polling showing a competitive race. Rating firms including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Safe or Solid Republican. Broader Texas redistricting changes have further entrenched GOP advantages in most districts. Trader consensus at roughly 94-95% for a Republican win aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major scandal, or dramatic turnout change, none of which current indicators suggest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Wolumen
$39,471Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican structural advantage heading into the November 3, 2026, general election.** The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12, reflecting consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80% in the March 2026 primary, while Democratic nominee Jason Pearce advanced with minimal fundraising and no public polling showing a competitive race. Rating firms including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Safe or Solid Republican. Broader Texas redistricting changes have further entrenched GOP advantages in most districts. Trader consensus at roughly 94-95% for a Republican win aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major scandal, or dramatic turnout change, none of which current indicators suggest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$39,471Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican structural advantage heading into the November 3, 2026, general election.** The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12, reflecting consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80% in the March 2026 primary, while Democratic nominee Jason Pearce advanced with minimal fundraising and no public polling showing a competitive race. Rating firms including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Safe or Solid Republican. Broader Texas redistricting changes have further entrenched GOP advantages in most districts. Trader consensus at roughly 94-95% for a Republican win aligns with these fundamentals. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major scandal, or dramatic turnout change, none of which current indicators suggest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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