**U.S. military action against Venezuela in 2026 has centered on a targeted January 3 raid capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, followed by naval and aerial strikes on suspected drug vessels, a sustained Caribbean military presence including the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group, and cooperation on earthquake relief.** Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in U.S.-backed judicial reforms, oil-field concessions granting American entities stakes in major reserves, and sanctions easing that facilitates Chevron, Eni, and other investments. Trader assessments of a full-scale invasion reflect the distinction between these limited operations, ongoing counter-narcotics enforcement, and any broader ground occupation or regime imposition, amid diplomatic leverage through oil revenue controls and no formal congressional war declaration. Key variables include further cartel designations, production ramp-up timelines, opposition negotiations, and any escalation signals from Washington or Caracas through late 2026.