**Zhang Youxia’s formal removal from the Central Military Commission in August 2026 followed his January 2026 investigation for “serious violations of discipline,” yet no trial or prison sentence has been announced as of mid-September 2026.** The 88% “No” price reflects trader consensus that the opaque disciplinary process—centered on alleged corruption, failure to enforce loyalty to the CMC chairman system, and resistance to accelerated 2027 modernization targets—has so far produced only personnel purges and public criticism rather than criminal sentencing. Official statements and PLA Daily editorials emphasize political rectification and removal of obstacles to Xi Jinping’s military priorities without referencing court proceedings or incarceration timelines. Recent NPC Standing Committee action stripped Zhang of state CMC and NPC roles alongside Liu Zhenli, further consolidating command under Xi and Zhang Shengmin, but the absence of public verdicts or reported prison terms since the initial detention sustains expectations that full judicial outcomes will extend beyond 2026. Historical patterns of high-level PLA cases show investigations and expulsions often precede or substitute for publicized sentencing, supporting the current implied probability that a prison sentence will not occur before the end of 2026.