Recent diplomatic signals from Beijing and the scheduled Trump-Xi summit on September 24 have strengthened trader expectations for a US-China tariff agreement by December 31. Chinese officials stated on September 10 that negotiators aim to implement reciprocal reductions on $30 billion in goods from each side at an early date, building on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and the May 2026 creation of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment. These steps extended tariff suspensions through November 2026 and aligned on agricultural purchases and export controls. The existing truce caps replacement duties near 20 percent, providing a framework for targeted rollbacks. Traders view the imminent leader-level talks and ongoing consultations as the primary catalysts supporting the 87.6 percent implied probability for a publicly announced mutual agreement before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano88% szansa
$248,271 Wol.
$248,271 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
88% szansa
$248,271 Wol.
$248,271 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic signals from Beijing and the scheduled Trump-Xi summit on September 24 have strengthened trader expectations for a US-China tariff agreement by December 31. Chinese officials stated on September 10 that negotiators aim to implement reciprocal reductions on $30 billion in goods from each side at an early date, building on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and the May 2026 creation of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment. These steps extended tariff suspensions through November 2026 and aligned on agricultural purchases and export controls. The existing truce caps replacement duties near 20 percent, providing a framework for targeted rollbacks. Traders view the imminent leader-level talks and ongoing consultations as the primary catalysts supporting the 87.6 percent implied probability for a publicly announced mutual agreement before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Rynek otwarty: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Wolumen
$248,271Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic signals from Beijing and the scheduled Trump-Xi summit on September 24 have strengthened trader expectations for a US-China tariff agreement by December 31. Chinese officials stated on September 10 that negotiators aim to implement reciprocal reductions on $30 billion in goods from each side at an early date, building on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and the May 2026 creation of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment. These steps extended tariff suspensions through November 2026 and aligned on agricultural purchases and export controls. The existing truce caps replacement duties near 20 percent, providing a framework for targeted rollbacks. Traders view the imminent leader-level talks and ongoing consultations as the primary catalysts supporting the 87.6 percent implied probability for a publicly announced mutual agreement before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Wolumen
$248,271Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic signals from Beijing and the scheduled Trump-Xi summit on September 24 have strengthened trader expectations for a US-China tariff agreement by December 31. Chinese officials stated on September 10 that negotiators aim to implement reciprocal reductions on $30 billion in goods from each side at an early date, building on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and the May 2026 creation of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment. These steps extended tariff suspensions through November 2026 and aligned on agricultural purchases and export controls. The existing truce caps replacement duties near 20 percent, providing a framework for targeted rollbacks. Traders view the imminent leader-level talks and ongoing consultations as the primary catalysts supporting the 87.6 percent implied probability for a publicly announced mutual agreement before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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