Ongoing redistricting litigation has shaped the AL-01 Republican primary, reviving May 19 primary results and scheduling a June 16 runoff between Jerry Carl and Rhett Marques after neither reached a majority. Carl's 40.3% to Marques' 31.1% finish in the initial balloting, combined with geographic advantages in Mobile-area support, underpins trader consensus favoring Carl at 55.5%. Earlier polls showed fluctuating leads, but the actual vote totals and runoff format have narrowed focus to these two contenders, with remaining candidates polling in the low single digits. Court rulings on congressional maps continue to introduce procedural uncertainty ahead of the runoff.