Alabama's strong Republican lean in federal elections, reinforced by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 margin and the absence of Democratic Senate wins in non-special contests since 1992, underpins the market's 95.5% Republican probability. The open seat vacated by Tommy Tuberville drew a competitive GOP primary resolved in June 2026, with Trump-endorsed Representative Barry Moore defeating Jared Hudson in the runoff to become nominee. Democrat Everett Wess, who won his party's runoff, faces the same structural headwinds, as reflected in July polling showing Moore ahead by double digits amid substantial undecided voters. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates and fundamentals in this solidly Republican state. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout could still narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given current conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$12,312 Vol.
$12,312 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republicano
96%
Democrata
5%
$12,312 Vol.
$12,312 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republicano
$6,741 Vol.
96%
Democrata
$5,571 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's strong Republican lean in federal elections, reinforced by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 margin and the absence of Democratic Senate wins in non-special contests since 1992, underpins the market's 95.5% Republican probability. The open seat vacated by Tommy Tuberville drew a competitive GOP primary resolved in June 2026, with Trump-endorsed Representative Barry Moore defeating Jared Hudson in the runoff to become nominee. Democrat Everett Wess, who won his party's runoff, faces the same structural headwinds, as reflected in July polling showing Moore ahead by double digits amid substantial undecided voters. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates and fundamentals in this solidly Republican state. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout could still narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$12,312Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's strong Republican lean in federal elections, reinforced by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 margin and the absence of Democratic Senate wins in non-special contests since 1992, underpins the market's 95.5% Republican probability. The open seat vacated by Tommy Tuberville drew a competitive GOP primary resolved in June 2026, with Trump-endorsed Representative Barry Moore defeating Jared Hudson in the runoff to become nominee. Democrat Everett Wess, who won his party's runoff, faces the same structural headwinds, as reflected in July polling showing Moore ahead by double digits amid substantial undecided voters. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates and fundamentals in this solidly Republican state. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout could still narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$12,312Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's strong Republican lean in federal elections, reinforced by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 margin and the absence of Democratic Senate wins in non-special contests since 1992, underpins the market's 95.5% Republican probability. The open seat vacated by Tommy Tuberville drew a competitive GOP primary resolved in June 2026, with Trump-endorsed Representative Barry Moore defeating Jared Hudson in the runoff to become nominee. Democrat Everett Wess, who won his party's runoff, faces the same structural headwinds, as reflected in July polling showing Moore ahead by double digits amid substantial undecided voters. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates and fundamentals in this solidly Republican state. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout could still narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given current conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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