Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance in June 2026, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in California’s 36th congressional district, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. The Los Angeles County seat features a heavy Democratic voter registration edge of nearly 50 percent against 20 percent Republican, alongside consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election matchup against Republican Houston Brignano. Limited Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling sustain the 95 percent implied probability. A major scandal, sharp national political shift, or unexpectedly high Republican turnout could narrow the outcome, though the district’s structural partisan composition makes such shifts improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-36
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-36
$35,241 Vol.
$35,241 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$35,241 Vol.
$35,241 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$6,297 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$28,944 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance in June 2026, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in California’s 36th congressional district, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. The Los Angeles County seat features a heavy Democratic voter registration edge of nearly 50 percent against 20 percent Republican, alongside consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election matchup against Republican Houston Brignano. Limited Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling sustain the 95 percent implied probability. A major scandal, sharp national political shift, or unexpectedly high Republican turnout could narrow the outcome, though the district’s structural partisan composition makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$35,241Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance in June 2026, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in California’s 36th congressional district, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. The Los Angeles County seat features a heavy Democratic voter registration edge of nearly 50 percent against 20 percent Republican, alongside consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election matchup against Republican Houston Brignano. Limited Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling sustain the 95 percent implied probability. A major scandal, sharp national political shift, or unexpectedly high Republican turnout could narrow the outcome, though the district’s structural partisan composition makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,241Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance in June 2026, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in California’s 36th congressional district, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. The Los Angeles County seat features a heavy Democratic voter registration edge of nearly 50 percent against 20 percent Republican, alongside consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election matchup against Republican Houston Brignano. Limited Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling sustain the 95 percent implied probability. A major scandal, sharp national political shift, or unexpectedly high Republican turnout could narrow the outcome, though the district’s structural partisan composition makes such shifts improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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