Elevated euro area inflation, recently hitting 3.3% in August 2026 driven by energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June hike, with September expectations centered on a further 25 basis point increase to combat headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026. Trader consensus views the policy stance as remaining restrictive through year-end, supported by core inflation near 2.4% and limited evidence of easing second-round effects. A sharp decline in energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth could still open the door to cuts, though current data and ECB communications indicate low odds of such a pivot.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
7% chance
$31,875 Vol.
$31,875 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
7% chance
$31,875 Vol.
$31,875 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro area inflation, recently hitting 3.3% in August 2026 driven by energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June hike, with September expectations centered on a further 25 basis point increase to combat headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026. Trader consensus views the policy stance as remaining restrictive through year-end, supported by core inflation near 2.4% and limited evidence of easing second-round effects. A sharp decline in energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth could still open the door to cuts, though current data and ECB communications indicate low odds of such a pivot.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,875Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro area inflation, recently hitting 3.3% in August 2026 driven by energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June hike, with September expectations centered on a further 25 basis point increase to combat headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026. Trader consensus views the policy stance as remaining restrictive through year-end, supported by core inflation near 2.4% and limited evidence of easing second-round effects. A sharp decline in energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth could still open the door to cuts, though current data and ECB communications indicate low odds of such a pivot.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,875Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro area inflation, recently hitting 3.3% in August 2026 driven by energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June hike, with September expectations centered on a further 25 basis point increase to combat headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026. Trader consensus views the policy stance as remaining restrictive through year-end, supported by core inflation near 2.4% and limited evidence of easing second-round effects. A sharp decline in energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth could still open the door to cuts, though current data and ECB communications indicate low odds of such a pivot.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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