Recent energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions have prompted the ECB to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projection upward to 2.6 percent, with core measures also rising amid second-round risks. At its April 30, 2026 meeting, the Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent while emphasizing a strictly data-dependent approach and heightened upside risks to price stability over subdued growth forecasts near 0.9 percent. Money-market pricing and professional forecaster surveys now embed expectations of at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-2026, reflecting the priority on containing inflation pressures. This environment has solidified trader consensus that a rate cut remains unlikely absent a rapid reversal in energy costs or inflation data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$27,989 Vol.
$27,989 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$27,989 Vol.
$27,989 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions have prompted the ECB to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projection upward to 2.6 percent, with core measures also rising amid second-round risks. At its April 30, 2026 meeting, the Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent while emphasizing a strictly data-dependent approach and heightened upside risks to price stability over subdued growth forecasts near 0.9 percent. Money-market pricing and professional forecaster surveys now embed expectations of at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-2026, reflecting the priority on containing inflation pressures. This environment has solidified trader consensus that a rate cut remains unlikely absent a rapid reversal in energy costs or inflation data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$27,989Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions have prompted the ECB to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projection upward to 2.6 percent, with core measures also rising amid second-round risks. At its April 30, 2026 meeting, the Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent while emphasizing a strictly data-dependent approach and heightened upside risks to price stability over subdued growth forecasts near 0.9 percent. Money-market pricing and professional forecaster surveys now embed expectations of at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-2026, reflecting the priority on containing inflation pressures. This environment has solidified trader consensus that a rate cut remains unlikely absent a rapid reversal in energy costs or inflation data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,989Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions have prompted the ECB to revise its 2026 euro-area inflation projection upward to 2.6 percent, with core measures also rising amid second-round risks. At its April 30, 2026 meeting, the Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent while emphasizing a strictly data-dependent approach and heightened upside risks to price stability over subdued growth forecasts near 0.9 percent. Money-market pricing and professional forecaster surveys now embed expectations of at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-2026, reflecting the priority on containing inflation pressures. This environment has solidified trader consensus that a rate cut remains unlikely absent a rapid reversal in energy costs or inflation data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions