The ECB's Governing Council has signaled a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy amid rising inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Markets price a near-certain 25-basis-point deposit facility rate increase at the June 11, 2026, meeting, lifting the rate from 2.00 percent, with further hikes possible later in the year to contain second-round effects on core inflation and expectations. This consensus reflects recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist surveys showing broad support for at least one 2026 hike, reversing earlier easing projections. Only a sharp reversal in incoming price and wage data or rapid de-escalation in energy markets could alter the path before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Aumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Sim
$135,044 Vol.
$135,044 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$135,044 Vol.
$135,044 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's Governing Council has signaled a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy amid rising inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Markets price a near-certain 25-basis-point deposit facility rate increase at the June 11, 2026, meeting, lifting the rate from 2.00 percent, with further hikes possible later in the year to contain second-round effects on core inflation and expectations. This consensus reflects recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist surveys showing broad support for at least one 2026 hike, reversing earlier easing projections. Only a sharp reversal in incoming price and wage data or rapid de-escalation in energy markets could alter the path before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$135,044Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's Governing Council has signaled a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy amid rising inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Markets price a near-certain 25-basis-point deposit facility rate increase at the June 11, 2026, meeting, lifting the rate from 2.00 percent, with further hikes possible later in the year to contain second-round effects on core inflation and expectations. This consensus reflects recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist surveys showing broad support for at least one 2026 hike, reversing earlier easing projections. Only a sharp reversal in incoming price and wage data or rapid de-escalation in energy markets could alter the path before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$135,044Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ECB's Governing Council has signaled a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy amid rising inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Markets price a near-certain 25-basis-point deposit facility rate increase at the June 11, 2026, meeting, lifting the rate from 2.00 percent, with further hikes possible later in the year to contain second-round effects on core inflation and expectations. This consensus reflects recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist surveys showing broad support for at least one 2026 hike, reversing earlier easing projections. Only a sharp reversal in incoming price and wage data or rapid de-escalation in energy markets could alter the path before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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