Elevated euro-area inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven market pricing and economist surveys toward at least one 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate increase in 2026, most likely beginning at the June meeting. After holding the rate at 2.00 percent in April, the Governing Council faces upside risks to its 2026 inflation projection near 2.6 percent alongside resilient labor markets and firmer core readings, prompting a shift from earlier easing expectations. Trader consensus at 98.2 percent for a hike reflects this data-dependent tightening path. A rapid de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth figures remain the primary factors that could still support an unchanged policy stance through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Aumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Sim
$129,157 Vol.
$129,157 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$129,157 Vol.
$129,157 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven market pricing and economist surveys toward at least one 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate increase in 2026, most likely beginning at the June meeting. After holding the rate at 2.00 percent in April, the Governing Council faces upside risks to its 2026 inflation projection near 2.6 percent alongside resilient labor markets and firmer core readings, prompting a shift from earlier easing expectations. Trader consensus at 98.2 percent for a hike reflects this data-dependent tightening path. A rapid de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth figures remain the primary factors that could still support an unchanged policy stance through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$129,157Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven market pricing and economist surveys toward at least one 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate increase in 2026, most likely beginning at the June meeting. After holding the rate at 2.00 percent in April, the Governing Council faces upside risks to its 2026 inflation projection near 2.6 percent alongside resilient labor markets and firmer core readings, prompting a shift from earlier easing expectations. Trader consensus at 98.2 percent for a hike reflects this data-dependent tightening path. A rapid de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth figures remain the primary factors that could still support an unchanged policy stance through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$129,157Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven market pricing and economist surveys toward at least one 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate increase in 2026, most likely beginning at the June meeting. After holding the rate at 2.00 percent in April, the Governing Council faces upside risks to its 2026 inflation projection near 2.6 percent alongside resilient labor markets and firmer core readings, prompting a shift from earlier easing expectations. Trader consensus at 98.2 percent for a hike reflects this data-dependent tightening path. A rapid de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth figures remain the primary factors that could still support an unchanged policy stance through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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