Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Elon Musk posting 240-279 tweets during April 3-10 at combined 25% implied probability, reflecting his metronomic 30-40 daily posts on X amid Tesla FSD 14.3 beta rollout hype, SpaceX heat shield breakthroughs, and xAI Grok updates. Recent weeks set the pace—March 30-April 1 tallied 69 posts (23/day average), while March 27-April 3 hit around 171 amid lighter days—creating tight competition between 240-259 (12.5%) and 260-279 (12.5%) bins as swing factors like surprise robotaxi announcements or political viral moments could push toward 280+. Absent major catalysts, his steady cultural commentary on tech and policy sustains the mid-200s frontrunner status.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado240-259 13%
260-279 13%
220-239 12%
280-299 12%
NOVO
$304,250 Vol.
NOVO
$304,250 Vol.
10 abr 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180-199
3%
200-219
9%
220-239
12%
240-259
13%
260-279
13%
280-299
12%
300-319
10%
320-339
8%
340-359
7%
360-379
6%
380-399
4%
400-419
2%
420-439
2%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
240-259 13%
260-279 13%
220-239 12%
280-299 12%
NOVO
$304,250 Vol.
NOVO
$304,250 Vol.
10 abr 2026
<20
$34,736 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$15,659 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$24,089 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$23,272 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$42,397 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$7,194 Vol.
<1%
120-139
$8,572 Vol.
1%
140-159
$5,991 Vol.
1%
160-179
$6,760 Vol.
2%
180-199
$4,896 Vol.
3%
200-219
$5,301 Vol.
9%
220-239
$8,661 Vol.
12%
240-259
$10,121 Vol.
13%
260-279
$11,146 Vol.
13%
280-299
$5,594 Vol.
12%
300-319
$5,341 Vol.
10%
320-339
$4,575 Vol.
8%
340-359
$2,617 Vol.
7%
360-379
$2,895 Vol.
6%
380-399
$5,001 Vol.
4%
400-419
$6,982 Vol.
2%
420-439
$4,256 Vol.
2%
440-459
$2,679 Vol.
1%
460-479
$5,521 Vol.
1%
480-499
$5,491 Vol.
1%
500-519
$10,658 Vol.
<1%
520-539
$6,581 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$3,563 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$4,524 Vol.
<1%
580+
$19,176 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 3 12:00 PM ET to April 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Elon Musk posting 240-279 tweets during April 3-10 at combined 25% implied probability, reflecting his metronomic 30-40 daily posts on X amid Tesla FSD 14.3 beta rollout hype, SpaceX heat shield breakthroughs, and xAI Grok updates. Recent weeks set the pace—March 30-April 1 tallied 69 posts (23/day average), while March 27-April 3 hit around 171 amid lighter days—creating tight competition between 240-259 (12.5%) and 260-279 (12.5%) bins as swing factors like surprise robotaxi announcements or political viral moments could push toward 280+. Absent major catalysts, his steady cultural commentary on tech and policy sustains the mid-200s frontrunner status.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 3 12:00 PM ET to April 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$304,250Data de Término
10 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 3 12:00 PM ET to April 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Elon Musk posting 240-279 tweets during April 3-10 at combined 25% implied probability, reflecting his metronomic 30-40 daily posts on X amid Tesla FSD 14.3 beta rollout hype, SpaceX heat shield breakthroughs, and xAI Grok updates. Recent weeks set the pace—March 30-April 1 tallied 69 posts (23/day average), while March 27-April 3 hit around 171 amid lighter days—creating tight competition between 240-259 (12.5%) and 260-279 (12.5%) bins as swing factors like surprise robotaxi announcements or political viral moments could push toward 280+. Absent major catalysts, his steady cultural commentary on tech and policy sustains the mid-200s frontrunner status.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 3 12:00 PM ET to April 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$304,250Data de Término
10 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Elon Musk posting 240-279 tweets during April 3-10 at combined 25% implied probability, reflecting his metronomic 30-40 daily posts on X amid Tesla FSD 14.3 beta rollout hype, SpaceX heat shield breakthroughs, and xAI Grok updates. Recent weeks set the pace—March 30-April 1 tallied 69 posts (23/day average), while March 27-April 3 hit around 171 amid lighter days—creating tight competition between 240-259 (12.5%) and 260-279 (12.5%) bins as swing factors like surprise robotaxi announcements or political viral moments could push toward 280+. Absent major catalysts, his steady cultural commentary on tech and policy sustains the mid-200s frontrunner status.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions