Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk sustaining his blistering X posting pace, with implied probabilities peaking at 11.5% each for 320-339 and 340-359 tweets during the March 27-April 3, 2026 week, reflecting recent weekly tallies often exceeding 300 amid political firestorms and Tesla/SpaceX updates. This tight clustering in the mid-300s underscores competitive dynamics, where baseline habits—averaging 40-60 posts daily post-2024 election frenzy—face differentiation from potential 2026 catalysts like midterms buzz or xAI announcements that could spike volume, versus quieter periods dipping below 300. Historical variance during controversies keeps tails alive for extremes, but award secret-ballot unpredictability in event-driven surges favors the high-volume cluster for savvy position managers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado320-339 12%
340-359 12%
300-319 11%
360-379 11%
$146,019 Vol.
$146,019 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
5%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
11%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
3%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
300-319 11%
360-379 11%
$146,019 Vol.
$146,019 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
5%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
11%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
3%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk sustaining his blistering X posting pace, with implied probabilities peaking at 11.5% each for 320-339 and 340-359 tweets during the March 27-April 3, 2026 week, reflecting recent weekly tallies often exceeding 300 amid political firestorms and Tesla/SpaceX updates. This tight clustering in the mid-300s underscores competitive dynamics, where baseline habits—averaging 40-60 posts daily post-2024 election frenzy—face differentiation from potential 2026 catalysts like midterms buzz or xAI announcements that could spike volume, versus quieter periods dipping below 300. Historical variance during controversies keeps tails alive for extremes, but award secret-ballot unpredictability in event-driven surges favors the high-volume cluster for savvy position managers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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