Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 65-114 tweets from March 23-25, 2026, with the 90-114 range edging out at 29.5% implied probability amid his signature bursty tweeting style. Recent data shows Musk averaging 20-40 posts daily in 2024's high-stakes election cycle, spiking to 100+ on politically charged days via his X megaphone, fueling bets on sustained virality. Closely matched leading bins hinge on post-2024 dynamics—potential Tesla launches, SpaceX milestones, or 2026 midterm fervor—versus quieter periods when his volume dips below 20 daily. Differentiators include algorithmic boosts to his content and real-time trackers projecting 75-100 total, underscoring unpredictability in this pop culture powerhouse's digital footprint.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado90-114 30%
65-89 28%
115-139 20%
40-64 12%
$94,763 Vol.
$94,763 Vol.
<40
2%
40-64
12%
65-89
28%
90-114
30%
115-139
20%
140-164
7%
165-189
3%
190-214
2%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
90-114 30%
65-89 28%
115-139 20%
40-64 12%
$94,763 Vol.
$94,763 Vol.
<40
2%
40-64
12%
65-89
28%
90-114
30%
115-139
20%
140-164
7%
165-189
3%
190-214
2%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 65-114 tweets from March 23-25, 2026, with the 90-114 range edging out at 29.5% implied probability amid his signature bursty tweeting style. Recent data shows Musk averaging 20-40 posts daily in 2024's high-stakes election cycle, spiking to 100+ on politically charged days via his X megaphone, fueling bets on sustained virality. Closely matched leading bins hinge on post-2024 dynamics—potential Tesla launches, SpaceX milestones, or 2026 midterm fervor—versus quieter periods when his volume dips below 20 daily. Differentiators include algorithmic boosts to his content and real-time trackers projecting 75-100 total, underscoring unpredictability in this pop culture powerhouse's digital footprint.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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