Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward Elon Musk posting 240-320 tweets during March 20-27, 2026, with 260-279 tweets holding a slim 11.5% implied probability edge amid tightly bunched mid-range bins at 10-11%. This clustering stems from his historical weekly averages of 200-350 posts, extrapolated from 2024 peaks exceeding 40 daily tweets during election fervor and Tesla drama, per tracking data from social analytics. Recent surges tied to X platform tweaks and political endorsements underscore volatile habits, where news cycles—potential SpaceX milestones or Trump admin updates—could spike volume, differentiating higher bins. Absent major catalysts, traders price in steady cultural dominance driving baseline activity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado260-279 12%
240-259 11%
280-299 11%
300-319 11%
$424,407 Vol.
$424,407 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
6%
220-239
7%
240-259
11%
260-279
12%
280-299
11%
300-319
11%
320-339
9%
340-359
9%
360-379
7%
380-399
6%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 12%
240-259 11%
280-299 11%
300-319 11%
$424,407 Vol.
$424,407 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
6%
220-239
7%
240-259
11%
260-279
12%
280-299
11%
300-319
11%
320-339
9%
340-359
9%
360-379
7%
380-399
6%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward Elon Musk posting 240-320 tweets during March 20-27, 2026, with 260-279 tweets holding a slim 11.5% implied probability edge amid tightly bunched mid-range bins at 10-11%. This clustering stems from his historical weekly averages of 200-350 posts, extrapolated from 2024 peaks exceeding 40 daily tweets during election fervor and Tesla drama, per tracking data from social analytics. Recent surges tied to X platform tweaks and political endorsements underscore volatile habits, where news cycles—potential SpaceX milestones or Trump admin updates—could spike volume, differentiating higher bins. Absent major catalysts, traders price in steady cultural dominance driving baseline activity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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